Hype, the name of new reality shows in town!

The outcome of 2016 round of state assembly election is described as a triumph of BJP and a high point in the history of BJP. That is what of course BJP badly needs after the Bihar debacle. But notwithstanding what the news media has summed up, what was the outcome? One aspect of the outcome which is a departure from recent polls is that the mandate is decisive in all the five states that went to polls. The other resounding outcome was BJP’s win in Assam even though its vote share has declined from 36 in 2014 to 31 percent in 2016. Compared to 2014 Lok Sabha poll, BJP vote share, in fact, has declined in three other states and in one it only retained. Vote share of both BJP and Congress would have been lower without their aligning with local parties. Although Congress party had improved its vote share marginally in two states, it is a big loser and lost power in two key states ending up with a question mark as to its national presence and even its very future!

BJP win in Assam despite a decline in its vote per cent brings out a larger trend evident in this round of assembly polls as well. That is role and relevance of regional parties. For, BJP won Assam resoundingly thanks to two regional parties. This brings out that, unlike Congress party, BJP learns essential lessons from its own past as well as from its key opponent. This is with respect to the alliance (not a coalition?) with local forces in no holds bar way, destabilize long-held relationships and come up with a state specific electoral strategy.

Congress party, on the other, continues to be riddled with "push and pull "aspects from within, more than in "think and be proactive" way and of course also remain directionless despite more potential leaders waiting in the wings. With such state of affairs, how could Congress party expect to fare any differently? The fact that Congress has to outsource its poll strategy function for forthcoming assembly elections to an outside campaign expert reminds certain emptiness and vacuum in leadership within states and at High Command?

An insight from this round of poll campaign with long-term implications, not only for the next round of assembly polls but also for the next round of Lok Sabha elections is in outlook towards union - states relations. Notwithstanding claims of cooperative federalism. There is increased tendency to centralize affairs not only politically but also in terms of priorities of schemes and as to resource allocations and revenue sharing methodology.

There is a need to remember, that as late N T Ramarao has reiterated many times, the idea of a "centre" is a myth as in our federal system it is the union of states and that states are not subordinates or at the courtesy or discretion of union government or its leaders of the day.

There is an undercurrent of resentment among many state leaders against increasing inroads and control of union government. This is evident from increasing clout and growth of regional parties. Claims of devolution of increased share to states, as recommended by 14 Finance Commission, have not cut much ice. We are likely to see more evidence for regional leaders lamenting such trend. National leaders ignore these sentiments at their own peril, as this round of polls signal.

There are contradictory messages from this round of polls. While there is nothing surprising about large-scale phenomena of note for a vote in some states, it was interesting that phenomena of provocative campaign full of slanders did not work in either of the states. Apparently it worked negatively to some extent. Cutting across party lines and rank in the party, leaders are indulging in such onslaught with implications to union- state relations. Yet another insight for further analysis from this round of polls is an alliance between strange bedfellows is more likely to dampen cooperative spirit among political leaders and social groups than otherwise.

Lastly, the way the Delhi-based news media, particularly news channels, had covered and “analysed" the results of this round of assembly polls in their "shows" should shudder those who expect independent and objective coverage of facts and cooperative politics. (A few years ago I questioned the practice of describing live discussions and debates, even live ones, as “shows” as if they are animated or put up!). A bit of exaggeration by some media is normal. But hype by most shows cannot be accidental even when the outcome of these elections to four state assemblies was a foregone one from the very outset.

What was this "good governance" and "development", leaders talked all about during the campaign? Do we have any better understanding of what good governance meant? Clearly, "means" no longer matter in politics, it is winning elections at any cost and come to power by all means. Is Media abetting that process or is it an ally of political masters! Or, perhaps both? For, going with the wind appears to be the name of new reality shows in town!

Dr. N Bhaskara Rao