Will Andhra ever get Special Category Status?

When I first wrote about the issue of Special Category Status (SCS) to Andhra Pradesh in this column in September 2016, I listed out six key hurdles which would come in the way of the residual AP getting the coveted tag which could help it put some of the bifurcation blues behind it.

The hurdles include existing norms under which AP is not eligible for the special tag, strong opposition from neighbouring states like Tamil Nadu and Telangana, lower bargaining power for AP at the Centre as it is a small State now with just 25 MPs and also the fact that SCS is not part of AP Reorganization Act, 2014.

I also pointed out that offering special tag to AP would be politically counterproductive for BJP and Congress in North India.

My last point was that as Gujarati strongman Narendra Modi got stronger after 2014 and BJP secured majority on its own in that elections, there was no political need for him to bless AP with the special tag.

Interestingly, all these six hurdles are still there. Furthermore, Prime Minister Narendra Modi became more stronger post the 2019 General Elections.

Though Congress has extended explicit support to AP's cause, it is no more a political force to reckon with, in the State and at national level. In this context, what are the chances of Andhra Pradesh getting the special tag?

That's not a tough question to answer, but Andhra Pradesh deserves the special tag. There should not be any second opinion about it.

As I mentioned in my column more than two years ago, in bifurcation, AP lost a big revenue churner in Hyderabad and with it a world class capital, a global IT hub, India's pharma hub, a large chunk of industrial belt and what not.

It will take several decades for AP to have a capital city and industrial ecosystem that can match Hyderabad.

As YS Jagan Mohan Reddy, the young Chief Minister of AP and YSRCP supreme, mentioned at the recent NITI Aayog conclave in New Delhi, AP got a raw deal in the division and people of Andhra Pradesh deprived of a capital city though they opposed bifurcation.

Therefore, it's central government's responsibility to correct the anomaly and put the residual State on right financial track. That can only happen at faster pace if AP is granted the much-awaited special tag.

But the fact of the matter is that BJP is no Congress and Narendra Modi is not Sonia Gandhi. Congress committed political suicide in the Land of Telugus by dividing Andhra Pradesh without devising any post-bifurcation political strategy.

The result. The Grand Old Part of India has been reduced to ashes in truncated Andhra Pradesh and is on deathbed in Telangana, the country's 29th State that it took enormous pain to create.

Expecting the saffron party to 'emulate' Congress is nothing short of foolishness. For BJP, granting SCS to Andhra Pradesh is fraught with political risks.

Bihar has been demanding special tag for as long as we remember. So is also AP's neighbour Orissa. Bihar remained solidly behind Modi in 2014 and 2019, giving the saffron party a greater number of MPs than it could bargain for.

In Odisha, the saffron party is a rising political star. So, BJP is unlikely to risk political backlash in Bihar and Odisha by offering special status to Andhra Pradesh. Furthermore, SCS to Andhra Pradesh will open a Pandora's box.

Tamil Nadu, AP's southern neighbour, will oppose it tooth and nail as it did so when a resolution was passed in Parliament in 2014, favouring the special status to the Telugu state. Besides, other states in North India, currently BJP's stronghold, may also join the fray demanding SCS.

BJP and Narendra Modi made some friendly overtures to TRS government in Telangana and YRSCP in Andhra Pradesh before recent General Elections so that it could fall back on them if it fell short of majority in Lok Sabha.

TRS and YSRCP leadership also hoped for the same. But their hopes got evaporated as BJP not only retained its 2014 Lok Sabha tally, but also crossed critical 300-seat mark on its own this time.

Therefore, it doesn't need any new political allies. Furthermore, it will make every possible attempt to weaken the political parties in the Telugu states so that it can come to power here, besides harvesting maximum number of MPs in this part of the country in 2024 when it will fight for a third consecutive term at the Centre.

The recent defection of four TDP Rajya Sabha MPs to BJP in AP will further fuel power ambitions of the saffron brigade in Andhra Pradesh.

In this backdrop, it is very unlikely that BJP government will offer SCS to Andhra Pradesh as such move will strengthen YS Jagan Mohan Reddy politically.

Therefore, the chances of Andhra Pradesh getting special status in next five years are nil. I don't think there will be any possibility even after that.

However, political dynamics may turn in AP's favour if the Modi government's political fortunes dwindle during the current second term and it stares at an imminent defeat in next elections.

In that scenario, the AP Government can mount some pressure on the Centre through agitations or other means to force the Modi 2.0 dispensation to bail out the State.

In that case also, the Centre can at the most announce a special financial package that can match the benefits of SCS as it did when TDP government had an alliance with it and was in power in AP.

That's so because as I mentioned earlier, AP doesn't fit into the norms of SCS that are currently in existence. If the Centre wants to accord special tag to AP, it needs to change the norms, which is not an easy option.

Therefore, it's more or less curtains on the possibility of AP getting the special tag. As of now, political stars don't favour it.

The AP government should explore other options to put the State on faster development track, put its finances in order and develop the capital city.

But there is no point in losing hope as politics are dynamic in nature and anything can happen in future.