AP politics seem set for massive churning

Are Andhra Pradesh voters divided on basis of caste? Do they give such great importance to the candidates of their own caste as is being made out by the politicians in the state? The ground realities give a different explanation. All this is being created by the power-hungry politicians.

Caste does certainly play an important role in allotment of party tickets but expecting that people would cast votes en bloc to a particularly party is a myth. Such situation was witnessed only in certain situation like the aftermath of murder of Vangaveeti Ranga when all Kapus went against the TDP. But the situation was not repeated in the next election.

Electoral history clearly shows that Kapus, Kammas Reddys, Brahmins, Dalits - or for that matter any community - do not vote on basis of community. Many Reddys, Kapus, SCs, STs and other minority communities voted for TDP in 2014 and a majority of them went with YSRCP in 2019. A ground survey of the situation clearly indicates that this time massive churning is on among different sections of the people and the YSRCP which appeared to be very strong till recently has now realised that good amount of damage has been done to its credibility because of the cumulative reasons and the anti-incumbency factor has been growing.

This has pushed the party into damage control exercise. Political analysts feel that in order to see the impact of damage is little, the ruling party is trying to bring the caste politics onto centre-stage. The party has also realised that the opposition which appeared to be decimated till recently is on revival path and serious efforts to consolidate its position particularly among the numerically strong Backward Classes and Kapu community is on. The fact is that as usual, voters of all communities and castes are divided and to whom they would vote would depend on their assessment of the government schemes, the failure of success in its implementation etc.

Though the government has been claiming to extend unmatched benefits to the poor, these schemes are turning out to be one of the causes of inviting the anger of the common voters. Leaders think that people would fall flat to the high publicity of the schemes. But, the voters are very intelligent; they calculate the end benefit they used to get in regard to past and present schemes and also weigh how efficiently they are being implemented.

The common voter in Andhra Pradesh seems to be in the process of framing an opinion about each political party, its performance and promises. The voters do not seem to be having faith in the system and they fear that the polls this time may not be free and fair unless the Union government takes a tough stand and ensure free polls. They are still not clear about the stand of Modi government regarding the state government. There is a feeling that the Centre continues to be more favourable towards the ruling party and is blinking at whatever is happening even though it is harming the state interests and the interests of its state unit. The feeling is that BJPs vote share this time would be less than what it polled in 2019. During the last elections, it got 0.84% votes as against 2.21% in 2014 when it was in alliance with TDP.

The reason is that the saffron party in AP is facing serious leadership crisis. It failed to retain its alliance partner Jana Sena and failed to take on YSRCP. Jana Sena had last time polled 6.8% votes. But the big brother attitude of the state BJP leaders made it drift towards the TDP and now the indications are that Jana Sena would work with TDP. TDP had last time polled about 40% votes and with the anti-incumbency growing, the percentage can go up. If it joins hands with Jana Sena whose popularity has marginally increased, there is every possibility that the contest would be a tough one.