Italy mulls walk back from China’s BRI

Italian Defence Minister Guido Crosetto said in an interview recently that the previous government made an “improvised and atrocious” decision when it joined the China-proposed Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The issue today is, he said, how to walk back (from the BRI) without damaging relations (with Beijing). That in essence sums up the dilemma of not only Italy but also all other countries that have entered into some bilateral agreement with China - not just in case of BRI.

Why did the italy’s defence minister make this observation? It is one of the strongest messages sent by any cabinet minister of the current dispensation in Italy. The Chinese have been cautioning Italy against such moves for long. The Chinese media has gone berserk since the comment on Italy’s predicament and is warning it against such a move. The former contends that the BRI is just a regional economic cooperation framework, which has nothing to do with national defence.

To evaluate its actual achievements, it should be the foreign trade department, the economic development department, or even the treasury department that are qualified. It termed the statement as ‘seriously inconsistent with the facts. The problem for Italy is that it feels the BRI has not had any positive impact on its economy. While the imports increased from China, its own exports had not seen much improvement.

Economically, it means that the much-touted win-win situation of the BRI has turned out to be to the benefit of China while Italy remains a mere spectator. But, China argues otherwise. It claims that for more than four years, the bilateral trade volume between China and Italy has repeatedly hit new highs. From 2019 to 2022, it increased by nearly 42 percent against the trend. Last year, it reached nearly $78 billion. From 2019 to 2021, Italy’s exports to China increased by 42 percent. In the first five months of this year, Italy’s exports to China increased significantly by 58 percent. These figures irrefutably reflect the strong effect of the BRI, which is not what Crosetto said at all, the Chinese authorities maintain. However, on the other hand, although the statement made by the Italian defence minister is very awkward, it seems “normal” in today’s political environment in the US and Europe.

China is aware of the fact that when it comes to international perspective it is always the security and defense officials who have the most radical attitude and the officials who are actually in charge of the economy appear to be much more “moderate” instead. China sees the US hand in this affair. Obviously, the NATO alliance or the US in specific, can’t entertain China so close to their doorstep with all the differences on almost all issues. Italy’s problem is that even though it allowed the BRI, it has to coexist with the blessings of the Western neighbourhood. Italy’s policy turn is driven partly by the incumbent government’s right-wing nature, but is more a dilemma resulting from mounting pressure from the US and the EU against the backdrop of intensifying geopolitical confrontation. It would be interesting to watch Italy wriggle out of the situation. But, Italy should also understand that it is a natural ally of the West and not of China nor could it facilitate Chinese influence to enter the European Union through its backdoor.