Bharat economy in ‘Goldilocks’ scenario

In this modern era after the world becomes a global village, every country is interdependent in the global transformation pertaining to the economy, technology, knowledge and resources. In these circumstances, no country is in isolation to keep aloof in the global changes. On one hand, it is inevitable for every country to run in a pace at least on par with other countries along with cooperation and coordination among them. On the other hand, it is mandatory to persist to act in the self-interest of each and every country without compromise of their public and country needs.

Exactly, current foreign and economic policies of Bharat are well balanced under the Prime Minister Narendra Modi governance for the last 9 years in the interest of our nation. Now a days, economy of the country has become a key indicator to evaluate its performance with the rest of the world, most particularly the present global uncertainties due to post Covid 19 impact and Ukraine and Russia war have been adversely impacting on the supply chain of the world.

At this juncture of the uncertainties, Bharat economy is fortunate for being appear as ‘Goldilocks’ scenario since Bharat has sustained with the growth rate at 7.20% for the year 2022 - 23 and projected the growth rate between at 6.50% to 7% for the current financial year for 2023 - 24 by various agencies though the all advanced countries like USA, China, Japan and German growth rates have been projected 1.9%, 3.9%, 0.9% and 1.6% to 1.9% respectively are far much behind the Bharat.

Further, inflation rate is under control due to the systematic Monetary Policy that has been implemented by the RBI with effective interest rates adjustments from time to time. Our country’s latest wholesale and retail inflation have been registered at 3.48% in May 2023 with contraction of 0.92% in the previous month and 4.25% as against 4.7% in the previous month respectively due to decline in the Inflation rate fall in the prices of crude oil, natural gas, food and non-food products, textiles, minerals, chemicals etc.

Apart from this, fuel and power prices inflation also declined in the last two years and RBI also revised the inflation rate below 5% for the current financial year, whereas, in other advanced countries inflation rate has been rising far higher than ours and consequently purchasing power of the public has diminished in those countries. In our country, effective measures from the Union government and RBI from time manage to time keep inflation under control. It is key to note that urban unemployment rate has been registered at lower rate of 6.8% in the last quarter (Jan-March 2023 ) for the year 2022-23. It was the lowest in the last 5 years and it was 8.2% in the previous year for the same period and as far as rural unemployment is concerned, it also under control 7.45%. One of the important positive indicators rise in forex reserves by 2.15 billion USD to reach the existing balance for 596.09 billion USD. In addition to this, growth in exports with 770 billion USD and gross FDI flows for USD 71 billion ( Net FDI was 46.03 billion USD ) respectively showcasing the performance for the year 2022-23, though FDI declined by 16% on gross and 21.67% on net when compared with the previous year that had been considered as better performance in these global economic uncertainties such as Russia and Ukraine war and lower confidence of global investor due to slowdown of the world economy.

It is noteworthy success of Make in India that Bharat has emerged as the second largest mobile manufacturing hub in the world as India touched $10 billion in export value in the financial year 2022 - 23 from almost NIL in 2015 - 16.

Despite few left-oriented intellectuals and opposition parties had been projecting that Bharat would be in recession by this time, as per the existing scenario across the globe at the time that they had forecasted, Bharat has been performing unequivocally with positive economic growth in almost all indicators as against the past predictions. It has happened with the timely proactive reactions as per the need by the dynamic leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his team for the last 9 years in a systematic manner by the introduction of Structural Reforms and various amendments and withdrawal of the existing and time barred enactments that influences the economy of the country positively. We need to note the timely Incentives for the automobile and textile industries and banking sector mergers improves the profitability of the PSU banks, demonetisation, Atmanirbhar Bharat Package, Gatishakti Yojana and infrastructure projects under Bharatmala and Sagarmala for road, rail, air and water connectivity in the transportation and industrialisation and so on all these have been contributed for ‘Goldilocks’ scenario in our country.

As far as growth rate is concerned, it was the biggest challenge in the year 2014 when Narendra Modi entered the PMO amid huge uncertainties due to slowdown of world economy and policy paralysis, massive corruption charges against the UPA government for 10 years between 2004 and 2014. But, Prime Minister Narendra Modi cabinet team and NITI Aayog have been playing the key role in the cooperative federal spirit for the inclusive growth remarkably. Consequently, Bharat has reached the size of the economy to 3.75 trillion USD by the end of the year 2022-23 with 7.2% growth (Post Covid19 Impact) whereas it was 2 trillion USD in 2013-14 with 6.9%. Further, Bharat has reached the 5th world largest economy during the year 2022-23 where it was 10th position in the year 2013-14 and our country is moving ahead to 3rd place in the next two to three years with emerging as 5 trillion USD economy. It needs to be noted that Bharat had registered 89.5 million Real Time Digital transactions for the year 2021-2022 and it reached 92 million transactions by 31st December 2022 and is progressing towards above 100 million transactions by the end of the financial year 2022 - 23, it is almost 50% of the global digital transactions.

Reason for Bharat economy being in the ‘Goldilocks’ scenario without any adverse impact from three important periods consecutively during the 9 Years of the Narendra Modi regime as the Prime Minister of the country. The first adversity was global slowdown, European Union economy uncertainties, international oil prices fluctuations etc. between 2014 and 2020, it was encountered with the structural reforms. Then, second adversity was Covid19 uncertainties and its adverse impact from the last quarter of the year 2020 to still exist on the country, it has been encountered with Atma Nirbhar Bharat Package and Indigenous vaccination. Finally, the third adversity was Russia - Ukraine war, it disrupts the supply chain causes the huge inflation, it has been handling with the oil imports from the Russia strategically with rupee as the medium of money exchange.

It is crystal clear that Bharat has been exercising the timely actions to face the every event of uncertainties with proper handling systems since 2014. After RBI had taken a decision to implement Rupee as the medium of foreign exchange and same was accepted by the 18 countries already, our Current Account Deficit had reached 2% GDP for the year 2022-23 due to sharp decline in the gap of Current Account Deficit for the last quarter of the year 2022-23.

Bharat has emerged as the huge opportunity for 1 million jobs creation to the USA Boeing aircraft manufacturing concerns in a single order from Air India at present when the USA economy has been slowing down where we always seek jobs from USA till now, it is the transformation in the last 9 years of Narendra Modi governance. Now UK is also expressing the interest to enter agreements and treaty as an important partner with the Bharat. If we observe that many countries in Europe and Middle East extending their concern to have a healthy tie up with Bharat for their future trade and services as a key partner. Hence, Bharat’s economy is in ‘Goldilocks’ scenario to become a ‘Viswa Guru’ in the next 25 years of the ‘Amruth Kaal.’