UP polls may throw up surprises on March 10

It's not a cakewalk for the BJP In UP Assembly elections. Many prominent leaders of the BJP have shifted their loyalties from BJP to Samajwadi Party and this time it looks the competition is more or less between SP and BJP parties. As we know last time the votes share for Congress was only 6.25% and many of the prominent leaders of Congress joined hands with BJP and SP. Congress may not be giving tough fights to the both BJP and SP parties. Priyanka Gandhi could not make any significant impact on the voters in UP.

BSP leader Mayawati is also not aggressive this time and we need to wait and watch the performance of BSP. Mayawati has given 90 seats to minority Muslim candidates in 2017 and wishes to do the same this time as well, wanted to keep the check the minority's votes to SP candidates and wanted to split the votes and wanted to damage the prospects of the Samajwadi Party.

Many Dalit and Muslim minorities' voters this time may be in favor of SP. More likely the SP Party may win a comfortable margin when compared to the BJP. Akhilesh Yadav is working hard to unite all the OBC into one platform and wanted to represent and give assurance that only the Samajwadi party can justify the voters and the people of UP.

The BJP has giving majority seats to the Dalits even in the general category also preferring Dalits and priority has been giving to the Mayawati community people only. This time BJP has organized meetings in 75 districts well in advance before the schedule of the date of the election and addressed the Dalits and weaker sections people to enable them to attract their votes to the BJP candidates. The SP party has improved its position by attracting many prominent leaders from the BJP.

Many prominent leaders from Congress left the party after Priyanka Gandhi assumed as party in charge of UP. The most prominent members who left the party are Mr. Jyotiraditya who earlier worked as Congress in-charge of UP, Jitin Prasad, who has worked as a cabinet minister from Congress, RPN Singh, who was also as an ex cabinet minister and who left the party. It looks the majority of prominent leaders have left the Congress and there is a void of leadership in UP. As the BJP and SP are becoming prominent BSP has also a very good hold in the UP.

In 2017 Congress contested with the alliance of SP and could get hardly 6.25% votes and could manage to get only 7 seats. It will be very difficult for Congress to retain even 7 seats in next elections and it is being a major issue as the Congress is unable to address the issue properly and could not retain the senior leaders of the congress and most of them joined either with the Congress or BJP.

During the 1980-88 period, Congress has replaced six CMs in 8-year period. Since 1952, only three CMs out 47 so far have completed their full terms - namely Mayawati (BSP), Akhilesh Yadav (SP), and the present CM of BJP Yogi Adityanath.

In the 2017 elections BJP had gained 272 seats, SP lost 188 seats, Congress 26, and BSP 77 seats and this shows how the BJP has emerged as the single largest party without any party support it could rule efficiently for a 5-year term.

Many prominent political analysts say that Yogi Adityanath will manage to win the elections in a tough fight with the present chief of Akhilesh Yadav of the Samajwadi Party. It is too early to predict the results of the election certainly as it is not a cakewalk for the BJP. SP will certainly consolidate its position as the many MLAs and the ministers changed their loyalties from BJP to Samajwadi Party. It will be a tough fight between SP and BJP and the result may even surprise everyone this time. Let's have patience till March 10, the results announcement day.

Kanagiri SN Prasad, Hyderabad