BJP on the backfoot, Congress on the ascent in Karnataka: Survey

Mangaluru: The upcoming elections in Karnataka are in the spotlight for the entire country. The only BJP-ruled southern state, Karnataka, has emerged as a crucial battleground for the party, with the saffron outfit going all out to retain power in the State while the INC and JD(S) have each mounted strong campaigns to wrest power from the ruling party.

As part of a pre-election survey between January 15 and February 28, the Lok Poll team visited all the 224 Assembly Constituencies (AC) in the state and spoke with over 45,000 people. All of the state's demographic groups were included in the survey, and when it was all done, the majority of respondents are seen to be supporting the Congress. In contrast to the BJP's 77–83 seats, the JD(S)'s 21–27 seats, and others 1-4 seats, the party received support in 116–122 seats.

The poll predicts that the government in Karnataka will change, with the Congress likely to secure a strong majority. The BJP appears to be losing ground, largely as a result of corruption problems, price increases that are negatively affecting women, discontent among farmers and young people, and a general perception that the government has experienced policy paralysis.

The BJP's core supporters appear to be dissatisfied, which is having an impact on the ruling party. First off, the Panchamasali community continues to hold grudges against the BJP for denying it a reservation, and the 2C/2D reservation is viewed as a bunch of baloney. Second, there is a growing perception that the announced reservation for SC/ST will not be granted because it has not been approved by Parliament. In coastal Karnataka, the micro-OBCs feel the party has not kept its promises to them, and Billavas are irate over the lack of protection and representation for youth, which is causing discontent in many areas.

With Muslims and Kurubas still supporting the party, the INC base appears solid while the BJP's core vote appears to be undecided. The BJP is cutting into JD(S) votes as a result of its focus on Old Mysore, which is assisting the INC in gaining more ground in the region. The BJP is also having problems with constant faction fighting, which has led to problems for the party in about 17 to 20 seats throughout the state.

The decline of BS Yediyurappa, which is bad news for the BJP and further alienates the Lingayat community, was also influenced by these cracks. On the ground, the promises made by Congress and JD(S) are becoming more and more popular. While PM Modi continues to have sway in the region, voters' choices appear to be influenced by issues unique to the state, and the BJP's chances are worsened by the lack of a strong presence in the region.

Young people's dissatisfaction with the government as a result of the government's inability to fill jobs is becoming a serious problem. The media's constant coverage of scams involving recruitment has increased public hostility toward the BJP. Women are upset about the increase in Anna Bhagya benefits and the rising cost of necessities like gas cylinders.

The farmers still talk about failure to provide farm loan waiver and MSP. With respect to the regional breakdown, in Old Mysore, although JD(S)' PanchratnaYatra has witnessed massive mobilisation, it is unlikely to move the needle in terms of vote share primarily because of the strong anti-incumbency in the region. The influence of the Devegowda family is also decreasing.

The lack of motivation among the cadre and infighting between disgruntled leaders is also harming the party's position. At the same time, the growing prominence of DK Shivakumar among the Vokkaligas and Siddaramaiah's influence have put the Congress on top in the Old Mysore region.

The voters in Kalyana Karnataka are unhappy because there hasn't been much development and the Koli community hasn't gotten any reservations. The election of MallikarjunKharge as AICC President has aided Congress' dominance in 24-27 seats.

Bengaluru, a Silicon city, has made headlines for its deteriorating infrastructure and unrelenting corruption under the current administration, driving urban voters away from the BJP. Congress is most likely to gain as AAP and SDPI also don't seem to be significant factors here at the moment.

However, in the other three regions, BJP is in the lead. Even though there are still BJP factions in Kittur Karnataka, the party has been able to hold onto power thanks to its well-organised structure and the presence of the RSS. While BJP still holds a majority in coastal Karnataka with 14–17 seats, it has given INC more room to grow. This is a result of the Billavas' underrepresentation and the Karavalli belt's use of the community's youth as a pawn in politics. The BJP's declining support is also a result of price increases and a disregard for areca nut farmers. The BJP is losing ground in central Karnataka as well because the party lacks a leader with the same stature as BS Yeddyurappa. The BJP doesn't appear to be currently benefiting from the general situation in Karnataka.