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Nifty: Due for a minor pullback
Nifty closed with minor loss for the week and completed five weeks of fall. Weekly movement suggests a ‘Hammer’ pattern suggesting a possible pullback from the current level. The rupee staged a smart rally on Friday. Considering the above, a reasonable pullback is possible at least for one week, but technically, Nifty is close to strong resistance area of 5555, which if crossed convincingly could give a smart pullback with resistance around 50DMA/ 200DMA, which are placed around 5750 / 5800.
Nifty closed with minor loss for the week and completed five weeks of fall. Weekly movement suggests a ‘Hammer’ pattern suggesting a possible pullback from the current level. The rupee staged a smart rally on Friday. Considering the above, a reasonable pullback is possible at least for one week, but technically, Nifty is close to strong resistance area of 5555, which if crossed convincingly could give a smart pullback with resistance around 50DMA/ 200DMA, which are placed around 5750 / 5800.
However, macro fundamentals are indicating further deterioration and any pullback/ recovery could only be short-lived and further lows too cannot be ruled out, Technically, Nifty had entered medium / long term bearishness. Unless it goes above 200 DMA, it would continue to remain bearish. Further, if Food Security Bill is passed, it would put lot of pressure on the exchequer and widen the deficit, which would be viewed negatively by market.
However, fundamentally, Nifty is quoting below its long term average PE and any further fall could make it attractive from long term point of view. So, the present divergence between fundamentals and technicals could prevail for some time. Nifty is bearish in all time frames i.e., short , medium and long- term as long as it trades below 200 DMA. Short-term uptrend would be restored if Nifty closes above 5500 mark, with stiff resistance around 5555. 50DMA is below 200DMA and is in ‘sell zone’ and any rise may be utilized to sell till Nifty closes above 50 / 200 DMA. As being pointed in this column for the last couple of weeks.
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