US-Iran convergence in containing ISIS might have facilitated a deal. But, how long this convergence lasts is something to be observed. Meanwhile,
US-Iran convergence in containing ISIS might have facilitated a deal. But, how long this convergence lasts is something to be observed. Meanwhile, Indian diplomatic disaster got exposed as it ditched its long-standing ally Iran during the period of standoff
Permanent five members of UNO, Germany and Iran have successfully arrived at a framework that would pave the way to a comprehensive agreement to resolve the over-a-decade-long standoff. The deal is significant as the Iran imbroglio threatened peace and security in the Middle East. At times, the US–Iran dispute was heading for a military confrontation having far-reaching implications. Stringent sanctions on Iran sponsored by the West led by US had a grave impact on international oil prices before global oil market slump. US President Obama says the framework would cut off every pathway that Iran could take to develop a nuclear weapon. Iran has agreed to the most robust and intrusive inspections and transparency regime ever negotiated. It will not be able to pursue a bomb using plutonium, because it will not develop weapons-grade plutonium.
The core of its reactor at Arak will be dismantled and replaced. Spent fuel from that facility will be shipped out of Iran for the life of the reactor. Iran will not build a new heavy-water reactor. And it will not reprocess fuel from its existing reactors ever. Iran also agreed that its installed centrifuges will be reduced by two-thirds. The vast majority of Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium will be neutralised. In return for Iran's actions, the international community has agreed to provide Iran with relief from sanctions imposed by the Security Council and the US. This relief will be tied to the steps Iran takes to adhere to the deal. And if Iran violates the deal, sanctions can be snapped back into place. The US has a dubious record of judging ‘actions’ to suit its strategic interests. The façade of IAEA inspections in Iraq earlier testify this. This deal comprehensively disarms Iran.
But, its hostile neighbour, Israel, actively armed by the West to the hilt, faces no restrictions. This may alter the parity of forces in the Middle East that has a potential to destabilise the situation at any flash point in the future. The immediate impediment is Obama facing an uphill task in selling the deal to the Republican-controlled Congress, which has threatened to impose new sanctions on Iran. With the process for next Presidential election to begin soon, the deal is expected to face hurdles. After the mess the US has landed itself in Iraq and Afghanistan, Obama administration was keen on breakthrough in regard to Iran.
The US and Iran have a convergence of interests in containing ISIS. This might have facilitated a deal. But, how long this convergence lasts is something to be observed. Meanwhile, Indian diplomatic disaster got exposed as the country under UPA regime ditched its long-standing ally Iran during the period of standoff. How would Iran respond towards India in the post-deal period is something to be watched.