Modi effect: Sensex to hit 29,000 by December

Leading domestic brokerage Edelweiss sees the 'Modi-effect' play more on Dalal Street and has set a Sensex target of 29,000 and a Nifty target of 9,000 by December. In the run-up to the polls, the Sensex has already gained close to 2,000 points and closed at 24,121.74 points after surging 1,470 points to hit a new life-time high of 25,375.63 in early trade on the election results day last Friday and the Nifty at 7,203 after touching a historic high of 7,563.50 or 6.18 per cent. In terms of market capitalisation, investor wealth rose by Rs 1 trillion to end at Rs 80.64 lakh crore last Friday.

"We see a near 20 per cent upside to the markets from the current levels by December as the election result has been unprecedented. Our Sensex target is 29,000 by the end of the year while we see the Nifty scaling past 9,000 by then," Edelweiss Securities head Ambarish Baliga told PTI. Baliga said the rally will be led by the stocks from the infra and capital goods space, apart from banking, and PSUs stocks. Narendra Modi-led BJP's victory is decisive and he has no scope for any excuses, though he will be carrying the burden of huge expectations, Baliga added.

Joining him, Edelweiss group founder and chairman and chief executive Rashesh Shah said the unprecedented victory of the BJP shows that the country wants growth and stability. "Modi can bring the investment cycle back by clearing pending projects and ushering in better Centre-state relations, which had broken down in recent past. Modi has already hinted that he believes in better Centre-state ties.This can help him roll out GST and DTC and many more radical reforms," Shah told PTI. Shah's wishlist from the new prime minister also includes making doing business easier.

"Modi has to change the air of anti-business that the previous regime had ushered in. If he does that we can easily get back 6-6.5 per cent GDP growth next fiscal and 5.5 per cent this fiscal," he said. However, Shah admitted that Modi will not be able to resolve all the problems that the economy is facing.

On his views on reviving the capital markets, especially the primary market, which has dried in the past two years, Shah said a cut in the securities transaction tax (STT) could go a long way in doing so. However, he expressed hope that with the Modi government in place a sentimental boost is already visible in the market and that the next couple of months would see a revival of the primary market. Shah also sees major reforms on the FDI front, especially in pensions and insurance. On the rupee, he said it is unlikely that RBI will allow the rupee to surge past 57-58.

Meanwhile, the flagship of the group, Edelweiss Financial Services reported a 19 per cent rise in consolidated net profit for the three months to March at Rs 61 crore, from Rs 51 crore. Revenue grew to Rs 699 crore from Rs 600 crore, up 17 per cent during the same period. Q4 net income, excluding insurance, stood at Rs 72 crore compared to Rs 70 crore a year ago, Shah said.

For the full fiscal, total income rose to Rs 2,556 crore from Rs 2,184 crore, a growth of Rs 17 per cent. Profit rose to Rs 220 crore, from Rs 178 crore, a growth of 23 per cent. This stood at Rs 271 crore excluding insurance compared to Rs 226 crore a year ago, up 20 per cent.