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Why AAP is celebrating BJP's victory
The results of the Assembly elections in Jharkhand and Jammu and Kashmir are a clear indicator that the Modi wave that resulted in massive electoral wins for the party in the Parliamentary elections is on the wane.
The results of the Assembly elections in Jharkhand and Jammu and Kashmir are a clear indicator that the Modi wave that resulted in massive electoral wins for the party in the Parliamentary elections is on the wane. In Jharkhand this time, the BJP was very upbeat, supported by sympathetic pollsters who calculated that the BJP would get a huge majority but the final tally is much below that mark (37 of 81 assembly seats). J&K has been a bit disappointing for the BJP and its enthusiasts.
The BJP had claimed that it would get a big victory in Kashmir and would give the start its first Hindu Chief Minister. It was very confident of making inroads in the Muslim-dominated Valley. Alas! It failed miserably in the Valley and also in the Buddhist-dominated Ladakh, its strength contained to the Hindu-majority Jammu region.
The most obvious question now doing the rounds in the corridors of power is about the political message for the next battleground: Delhi. The BJP has been banking on the results in Jharkhand and Kashmir to create an atmosphere of invincibility, but the results clearly hint at a different story.
Before analysing the impact in Delhi, we have to understand two things. First, it has to be understood that Delhi will be a fight between two parties unlike in Jharkhand and in J & K., where there were multi-cornered fights and the BJP was an obvious beneficiary. Secondly, there is nothing new about these parties. They are traditional parties with a similar history and chemistry. But Delhi can boast of a new party which has none of the characteristics of these traditional parties. The Aam Aadmi Party is a toddler in the game of politics; it is hardly two years old; it is the product of an anti-corruption movement.
If the Congress shrinks further, in keeping with the signals, then it will be bad news for the BJP. In the context of a one-to-one contest, the BJP has normally been a loser. Even a marginal presence of the BSP was of no benefit to the BJP. Today, the Congress has replaced the BSP, and the BSP as a party has disappeared from the map of Delhi, which is a clear advantage to AAP. In fact, the combined social base of the Congress and the BSP has been replaced by AAP.
The counter argument can be that the BJP with its social base and the Modi factor can easily sail through. The Modi wave is on a decline. The BJP's performance is not as overwhelming as was envisaged in J&K and Jharkhand. Modi's governance in the last seven months has raised serious questions on the issue of delivery.
By: Ashutosh
