2016 polls: Acid test for Modi Shah

Perform or Perish

The year 2016 could make or mar Modi's dreams

• If Modi gets prestigious bills through in Budget session, he could launch India in the direction he seeks to.
• Modi is under watch 2016 for another reason. It is election time in West Bengal, TN, Puducherry, Kerala and Assam. UP’s is in 2017
• Buoyed by the Bihar lesson, the parties in these five States are recasting strategies
• In the new political world order, enmity toward Narendra Modi is the high mark of civilisation.
• How Modi, Shah would shape up the party in these States is crucial not only to the BJP but also to the duo

It is said that exigency creates the necessary ability to cope with a perplexing situation and gives one the capacity and ingenuity to manipulate out of the complex problem successfully. There are several examples of these.

Take for example the case of Lalu Prasad Yadav who was down in the dumps but triumphed over all obstacles in taking on the Modi-Shah combine's strategy. It is this Bihari script that is now going to be a big challenge for Narendra Modi.

As Modi-Shah combine look at their future through the prism of 2015, it is Bihar that would loom large on the horizon as never before. Because, Bihar has taught their rivals a big lesson. "If you have to survive in the killing fields, come together to defend your territories and lives.”

This new year is not going to cheer up the BJP leadership as much as it did in the last year. The ruling party had reason to celebrate the onset of 2015. The euphoria of winning the Lok Sabha elections was continuing and it had little cause for worry.

But, this time the advent of 2016 is not going to bring much pleasure to Narendra Modi. As he looks back at the year gone by, he has little to cheer. His political stardom has diminished. His priorities are at loggerheads with the ground realities. His policies are yet to take wings. His Bills have to wait for the Opposition nod. Industrial growth has slowed down and foreign investment is still awaited. The big ticket projects envisaged under "Make in India" scheme have not materialised so far.

Modi may not be worried excessively as he still has time to prove his mettle. But the same may not be the case when time flows by and Modi is staring at the prospects of 2017. Because, between now and the next January, Modi would have to establish himself all over again as a harbinger of change that he projected himself as, before the last Lok Sabha elections.

The year 2016 could make or mar Modi's dreams. This year, right through the Budget session of the Parliament, people would keenly watch Modi's performance. If he gets a nod for the prestigious bills pending in the Parliament, he could launch India in the direction he seeks to.

People would also be watching Modi in 2016 for another reason. It is election time in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Kerala and Assam. Uttar Pradesh's is in 2017 so will come to it later. Buoyed by the Bihar lesson, the parties ruling these States have already marked their enemy. Strategies are being recast. Because in the new political world order here, enmity toward Narendra Modi is the high mark of civilisation. Leaders are flaunting this one as their lead qualification to seek votes.

From Aam Aadmi Party to Trinamool Congress to Congress, hurling invectives has become the favourite past time in our political culture. Consolidation of vote banks has become key to success rather than parading developmental issues in the elections. Mamata Banerjee is way ahead in this game and the BJP is doddering at every step in West Bengal.

The Left front is also looking at a realignment of forces as Mamata is sitting pretty with the Muslim vote consolidation in her favour so far. No doubt, the BJP vote share has gone up in the Lok Sabha polls (from the previous 7 per cent to 17 per cent) but in the panchayat and the municipal elections it is almost a washout for them. As an organisation, too, the BJP is in a state of disarray here.

Coming to Tamil Nadu, though Amit Shah launched his Madurai plan in the last August itself, there is little for the party to hope for here unless it has the support of all fringe groups along with one well-known leader's base.

When the State goes to polls in July or so, Tamil voters would also have another choice in the Peoples' Welfare Front – a third front – of Vidhuthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK), the largest dalit party, Left parties and Vaiko's MDMK. Whether the BJP looking for the OBC-Dalit axis in the Southern Tamil Nadu would be able to sew the tie-ups properly is to be seen. Anyway the quick sands of Dravidian politics are not easy to conquer for Hindutva forces.

Similar is the game plan for Kerala, and the BJP leadership is aware of the challenges in this highly literate State despite the RSS being quite active here. Even otherwise, the State is known to oscillate between the two main groupings of the UDF and LDF anyway.

When it comes to Assam, the BJP hopes to consolidate its position as never before here and has embarked on Mission-84 in an Assembly of 126 seats. Presently, the Congress is in power with 78 seats and the BJP has only five sets here. The positive for the BJP is its performance of the Lok Sabha elections last.

It had won seven out of 14 seats in the State and its vote share has gone up from the previous Assembly elections 11.5 per cent to 36.5 per cent in the LS elections. It got the highest votes in 69 Assembly segments out of 126 in the LS polls. The Congress share had come down from 39.9 per cent to 29.9 per cent in the same elections.

In fact, the BJP's general secretary, Ram Madhav had gone ahead and declared that it is Mission-126 and not Mission-84. In between there is Puducherry that is going to polls.

The outcome in these States certainly impacts the BJP plans, particularly the Southern plans. The only State it is in power in South is in Andhra Pradesh and here it is surviving at the mercy of the TDP. How would Modi-Shah combine shape up the party in these States is crucial not only to the BJP but also to the duo if it wants to consolidate its position within the party.

The RSS has so far remained silent and has given them a free hand to deal with internal matters, too, for its own reasons despite the fact that the Margadarshaks like L K Advani, Yashwant Singh and Murali Manohar Joshi are an unhappy lot. There is lot of heartburn within the party over other issues, too, which include the style of governance.

Even the Union Ministers have no say in several matters and it is typical Gujarat style of governance that is in place in New Delhi. Many senior bureaucrats are also unhappy at getting snubbed by the "PMO boys" (as the young crop of handpicked officials is being termed).

None of these will blow up in the face of either Modi or Shah because the RSS is still banking on them to deliver on their agenda including Ram Mandir. Bihar did not dent their image because the electoral strategy had the full backing of the RSS.

Adverse results in the 2016 elections would not augur well either to the party or Modi because he will be facing the UP elections next year. Who will join hands with the BJP here is to be seen. Both Mayavati and Mulayam know that their strength lies in the minority voters. Both of them are trying to woo them.

The Samajwadi Party leadership has learnt its lesson in Bihar and is all eager to have its Mahagathbandhan here to take on the BJP. Whether the BJP would join hands with the BSP or so is yet to be reviewed. It could be a dicey proposition for anyone joining hands with the BJP in UP as such a party must be prepared to lose the minority vote. Be it in governance or politics, 2016 will leave its indelible mark on the BJP, thus.