Afghanistan Crisis: Pakistan triumph to be momentary

So much is being said about the 'Afghan effect' on India now that the Taliban have taken over the country once again after two decades that one would be driven to conclude that India will be the only country to face the consequences in this context. Is that so, really?

India has its stakes in Afghanistan. There is little doubt about it. India too has made its investments here. But, all investments in Afghanistan are for the development of the country and for the benefit of the people. India has always treated Afghans as 'friends' and not as pawns in the power play in the region. Others did not do so. Be it the case of Pakistan, China, Russia or the US...it could safely be claimed that all these only had vested interests.

All those Indian doomsayers should realise that if there is any country that is in danger, a real danger at that, it is Pakistan, because of the scenario in Afghanistan. Pakistan also must be wary of this. It is walking a very fine line between optimism at having a more friendly government in Kabul and potential security blowback on its own soil, not to mention the shattering of global reputation that will come by default to the countries that directly back the Taliban, who seem set to again relegate religious minorities and women to an inferior status.

Some analysts are referring to the Taliban as 'these Taliban' and 'that Taliban' as if the ones taking over now are the most reformed and the most refined ones. Have they become civilised now? If so, why is there a trepidation in Pakistan now over the developments? It is not just India-bound jihadist groups like Jaish-e-Muhammad (JeM) and Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), which have long overlapped with al-Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan, which are now shifting their operational bases from Pakistan. These groups would now prefer Afghanistan because the Pakistani government and the Army have imposed restrictions on them due to the pressure of the counter-terror watchdog Financial Action Task Force (FATF).

Pakistan's increasingly beleaguered liberals believe that despite the Afghan Taliban's claims to be well-disposed towards Pakistan, it is obvious that they will now support the Pakistan Taliban. In fact, that is already happening and it is absurd, the liberals argue, for hardliners to ignore the recent release of Pakistani Taliban prisoners from Afghan jails.

An emboldened Pakistani Taliban, they predict, will once again deploy its suicide bombers in Pakistan's cities. In addition, more refugees will flee poverty in Afghanistan and more Afghan Taliban drug smuggling operations will be run through Pakistan. All this would bring Pakistan into an equal focus of the world powers alongside Afghanistan. Pakistan is bound to face not only a Taliban backlash, but also a US backlash. Having done much the same in Afghanistan, Pakistan too might be punished.

During the war, the Americans tolerated Pakistan's double game because they saw little choice, preferring to fight a chaotic war in Afghanistan to warring with nuclear-armed Pakistan. This may not be the case in future. All that India needs to do is play its cards close to the chest. Let Pakistan do the worrying.