Modi deals a ‘special’ jolt to I.N.D.I.A

Did the Modi government try to outsmart the conglomeration of 28 opposition parties labelled as I.N.D.I.A, which were holding a two-day meeting to name the convenor and unveil a logo? Was it a move to amuse them or confuse them? Or was it a move that had come from a government that was ‘scared’ of team I.N.D.I.A as claimed by Rahul Gandhi? Is India moving towards dictatorship as alleged by AICC president Mallikarjun Kharge? Is democracy at stake?

Well, these and many more questions have been raised with one hint from Team MODI regarding the five-day special session of Lok Sabha. Will it happen or will it not happen? What are the legal hurdles involved in it? What if the Centre introduces a bill in Lok Sabha and the opposition stalls the proceedings on the issue of OCCR report on Adani which seems to be imminent? Who will be the loser and who will be winner in the political marathon? Analysts have enough fodder to talk and write about it for the next three weeks, if not more.

But for the present, this one hint of simultaneous polls has rattled the opposition. The I.N.DI.A group consisting of 28 opposition parties is still at very nascent stage of forming a unified alliance and could not either decide on logo or the name of the convenor. And the two-day meeting that turned out to be “Meet, Greet and Repeat” is seriously upset over the issue of one nation - one election. The big question is can they block Modi’s moves?

We have seen many occasions including the recent violence in Manipur when the opposition parties demanded a special session. Now, when the government convened the special session, they are questioning the need for it. They were asking why Modi did not convene a special session when Covid-19 epidemic was there, why no special session was convened when Chinese aggression on our borders was there. Senior leaders like Kharge say that it is an assault on the Constitution. Some say it is impractical, while the left leaders and leaders like Sharad Pawar feel the government is nervous.

Young leaders like Akhilesh continue to be confused as their perspective does not stretch beyond their states. There are some like BRS, YSRCP etc., which maintain silence. All these knee-jerk reactions indicate that the opposition feels more nervous as it may have to redraft its poll action plans if it were to win the full marathon called 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

On the other hand, the BJP and the government have made some quick moves to further confuse the opposition. While the government constituted a committee led by former President of India Ramnath Kovind to explore the possibility of this concept, the BJP has launched a campaign, saying that the opposition is scared of one nation - one election because they only believe in the formula called give-and-take. They give an opportunity to indulge in high-level corruption and take back the benefits. The team I.N.D.I.A consists of those leaders who had not spared any of the five elements (Pancha Bhutas) to indulge in scams, the BJP leaders allege.

One thing is clear, the opposition has exposed its nervousness. No one has shown the spine to stand up and say, “Look boss, the special session cannot alter the situation and 2024 elections will be held as per the existing system.” No one has made a strong point, saying look the Constitution cannot be so easily amended. Such a major reform needs consultations with all stakeholders including the Chief Ministers of all the states as the Assemblies will have to ratify the amendment.

No one said that the discussion on such a major issue cannot be concluded in one day. They appear to be more interested in making noise, stalling the Parliament and to keep chanting the name of Adani and walk out leaving the country wonder if the opposition thinks that Adani is India and India is Adani.

As of now, it appears that Team MODI has succeeded in his big move to push through the ‘one nation – one election’ concept which promises to be the big ticket idea and has disrupted the conventional calculations for Lok Sabha polls and the opposition fears that it could catch the popular imagination.

The BJP had built his argument at party forums and in public since 2019. Its arguments against an almost unceasing election cycle in the country on two pillars of avoidable massive public expenditure and blow to development works have created some traction. The argument is that the Model Code of Conduct during polls bars the announcement of any fresh development initiatives and the deployment of senior officials for conducting polls in different parts of the country also deals a blow to the implementation of ongoing work. This argument holds even as the ECI issues notification and many Chief Ministers may write to it, seeking exemptions.

Let us take a look at India’s tryst with the one nation – one election concept. Soon after Modi came to power in 2019 for the second consecutive term, he held talks with heads of different political parties and discussed the pros and cons of the move. It was felt that there would be many logistical challenges in conducting simultaneous polls even if it is conducted in multiple phases. It would need manpower to be deployed around the same time at a stretch. It will require greater number of EVMs and VVPAT machines.

That apart, what if any state government collapses or gets dissolved before their scheduled five-year term? This issue assumes importance in view of past experiences. It may be recalled that the system of holding elections in India dates back to October 25, 1951 when Independent India witnessed its first simultaneous elections where the exercise lasted for 100 days. However, as states were restructured and assemblies were prematurely disbanded, this set-up fell apart. Nonetheless, simultaneous elections were held in 76% of the states in 1957, and 67% in 1962 and 1967. But in July 1959 when the Kerala government led by EMS Namboodripad was dismissed by the Central government, state elections had to be held within three years of the last assembly polls.

One thing is certain, challenges are many. And if India indeed opts for the one nation – one election, the world’s biggest democracy will set another unique example. The opposition parties would be doing a great job if they start talking about the real issues pertaining the feasibility of the concept and come with a firm opinion on whether or not it should be opted for, instead of making loose comments such as that BJP is scared of I.N.DI.A etc.

The simultaneous polls exercise will require at least five constitutional amendments. For a Constitutional Amendment, two-third members of the House must be present for the vote. A consensus of all political parties and the state governments is needed. After the Constitutional Amendment Bill is passed in parliament, it needs to be ratified by half the states in India through resolutions in their assemblies. So, the process is not simple. With elections in five states to be held soon, all this process cannot be completed.

Then why is the opposition worried? Well, the twist here is the Centre may introduce a bill which will not be discussed at any cost as the atmosphere in the parliament will not be conducive for it. But the Centre under the existing laws can postpone elections to some states and hold polls along with Lok Sabha. It is this issue which is bothering the opposition parties more. If the Centre moves in that direction, then they will have to redraft their strategies. Many parties like BRS will be confined to their States till the elections are over and it would be upsetting their apple cart. The pink party wants to concentrate on Assembly elections, come back to power for the third consecutive term and then go aggressive in national politics. But now this strategy may hit a roadblock.

The Team I.N.D.I.A is worried because they are not able to decide on the convenor for the group of parties even to take on the BJP during Lok Sabha polls. If they have to face Assembly elections also, it would be a real uphill task as seat sharing there would be near impossible, That is why many parties, particularly regional, have expressed strong opposition to the proposal.