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Modi's economic policies may enable his re-election

Modi
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Modi's prospects for re-election will depend upon many factors and perception of people on Modi's performance as prime minister. On analysis of data,...

Modi's prospects for re-election will depend upon many factors and perception of people on Modi's performance as prime minister. On analysis of data, the economic growth and taxation have risen while inflation and the fiscal deficit have fallen during the Mod's first term as Prime Minister.

Real GDP growth is estimated at 7.2 per cent over 2017–18 and 7.23 per cent over 2018–19. While the UPA government in rule in the last fiscal year of 2013–14, the real GDP growth was 6.39 per cent.

It is estimated that the real GDP per capita growth accelerated from 5.3 per cent over 2017–18 to 5.94 per cent over 2018–19, compared to 5.03 per cent over 2013–14.

However, the estimates for 2017-18 and 2018-19 may be revised upward as more data become available. CPI inflation is estimated to have dropped from 9.6 per cent over 2013–14 to 4.7 per cent over 2017–18.

The central and state fiscal deficits have come down from 6.7 per cent of GDP over 2013–14 to 5.9 per cent over 2018–19. As a result of various tax reforms such as the goods and services tax launched in July 2017 and better compliance, the tax-to-GDP ratio has improved considerably too.

Combined direct and indirect tax revenue is predicted to rise from 10.14 per cent of GDP over 2013–14 to 12.13 per cent over 2018–19. Gross savings is expected to rise from 28.8 per cent of GDP to 30 per cent, and gross investment from 30.6 to 32.2 per cent. More than US$38 billion of inbound foreign direct investment has been received in 2018.

India has also improved its standing in ease-of-doing-business rankings by 65 positions in four years. It is currently 77th among 190 countries. Economic growth has been inclusive for all sections of society — development is now a people's movement in India.

Whether this economic performance is sufficient for the electorate to grant Modi a second term in office will be clear in a few months.

Gudipati Rajendera Kumar, Hyderabad

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