IMD predicts normal south-west monsoon

New Delhi: In a relief for the agriculture sector, India is expected to get normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon season despite the evolving El Nino conditions, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Tuesday.

The IMD prediction comes just a day after a private forecasting agency, Skymet Weather, predicted "below-normal" monsoon rains in the country.

India has already seen four consecutive years of 'normal' and 'above-normal' rains during the monsoon season. Normal rain is critical for India's agricultural landscape, with 52 percent of the net cultivated area relying on it. It is also crucial for the replenishing of reservoirs critical for drinking water apart from power generation across the country.

Rainfed agriculture accounts for about 40 percent of the country's total food production, making it a crucial contributor to India's food security and economic stability.

El Nino, which is the warming of the waters in the Pacific Ocean near South America, is generally associated with the weakening of monsoon winds and dry weather in India.

The El Nino conditions this year follow three consecutive La Nina years. La Nina, which is the opposite of El Nino, typically brings good rainfall during the monsoon season.

"India to see normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon season (from June to September). It is likely to be 96 per cent (with an error margin of 5 per cent) of the long-period average of roughly 87 cm," M Ravichandran, secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences, said at a press conference. While Skymet had predicted a 20 percent chance of 'deficient' monsoon rainfall, the IMD put it at 16 percent. There is a 67 per cent probability of normal to above normal rainfall, said M Mohapatra, Director General of Meteorology, IMD.

Mohapatra said normal to below-normal rainfall is predicted over parts of northwest India, west-central and northeast regions during the southwest monsoon season. "Normal rainfall is likely over many parts of the peninsular region, adjoining the east-central, east, northeast areas and some parts of northwest India," he said.

The Met department head said El Nino conditions are likely to develop during the monsoon season and its impact may be felt in the second half. Mohapatra, however, added that not all El Nino years are bad monsoon years and that 40 per cent of the El Nino years in the past (1951-2022) received normal to above-normal monsoon rainfall.

According to the IMD, rainfall between 96 per cent and 104 per cent of a 50-year average of 87 cm is considered 'normal'. Rainfall less than 90 percent of the long-period average is considered 'deficient', between 90 percent and 95 percent is 'below normal', between 105 percent and 110 percent is 'above normal' and more than 100 percent is 'excess' precipitation.