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Monsoon on course to hit Kerala on June 4
For representational purpose
- No cyclone probability, forecasts IMD
- Weather office expects normal monsoon
New Delhi: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday predicted that the southwest monsoon is likely to set in on Kerala around June 4. As per the IMD, there is no possibility of the arrival of monsoon before June 1.
“Once the monsoon gets strong, it is likely to arrive in Kerala around June 4, 2023,” said IMD in its updated long-range forecast outlook for the 2023 Southwest monsoon Season (June - September) rainfall and monthly rainfall and temperature for June 2023.
The IMD further informed that there is no cyclone probability in the Arabian Sea for next week. “If rainfall distribution is almost similar everywhere, then it will be an ideal situation. There won't be any problem. If we get equal distribution everywhere, there won't be much impact on agriculture. In northwest India, as of now, below-normal rainfall will be there,” according to the IMD.
As per the IMD, below-normal monthly rainfall is expected over most parts of the country except in some areas of south peninsular India, northwest India, extreme north India, and some isolated pockets of northeast India, where above-normal rainfall is expected in June.
However, the southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country is most likely to be normal (96 to 104% of Long Period Average (LPA).
Quantitatively, the southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country is likely to be 96% of the LPA with a model error of ± 4%, said the IMD.
Barring the northwestern region, India is set to receive normal rainfall this monsoon season despite the El Nino phenomenon which is set to return after a three-year hiatus, the weather office said on Friday.
However, most parts of the country will witness deficient showers in June, except some pockets in peninsular regions such as south Karnataka and northern Tamil Nadu, Rajasthan and Ladakh, the India Meteorological Department said in its update of the long range forecast for the season.
The weather office said the warming of the equatorial Pacific Ocean has begun and there was a 90 per cent probability of development of the El Nino phenomenon, which is known to affect monsoon rains in India.
However, a positive Indian Ocean Dipole is likely to develop during the monsoon season which would offset the adverse impact of the El Nino and bring rains to most parts of the country.
