US-Russia tiff aiding IS

The Middle East has become a theatre of the absurd. Armed to the teeth but blocked in mind, the US is unable to even poke ISIS, much less inflict on it a body blow. The Americans have not been able to formulate a winning strategy to deal with arguably the most ferocious of Islamist groups active in the region.

Barack Obama’s speech at the UN last month stood out for two signature comments. First, the US has learnt over the past decade that it “cannot by itself impose stability on a foreign land”. Second, “the United States is prepared to work with any nation, including Russia and Iran, to resolve the conflict in Syria.”

Enter Putin, firing from the hips. “Do you realise what you have done?” he asked the US, pointing at its contradictions in Syria. The US wanted President of Syria Bashar al Assad to go without offering any alternative to the rampaging Islamic State.

Putin boxed Obama in, creating a counter-narrative in the Middle East. It is the elephant in the room. Though squirming in discomfort, Obama has no option but to grin and bear with a bilateral meeting on Syria and Ukraine. The battle against ISIS has fast degenerated into a battle of perception between Obama and Putin. At the moment, Putin is winning the battle hands down and guns up — in spite of Obama’s 18-month-long attempts to isolate Putin diplomatically.

Saudi Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman flew down to Moscow; so did his UAE counterpart Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan. Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al Jubeir met with US Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Qatar. Syrian President Bashar al Assad was fast losing the plot. Hence, the platform was decked up for a grab.

Obama and his allies mistook it as an opportunity to manage Putin. They failed to anticipate that Russian President Vladimir Putin could and would come armed to the negotiating table. Putin embodies a kind of muscular diplomacy the US does not like. However, loudly Putin may shout from the rooftops that his intervention was nothing but to fight the ISIS, no one misses the fact that the missiles are fired against the anti-Assad rebels advancing in western Syria, where Assad’s ancestral homeland of Latakia is situated in the northwest.

Russia can’t win more military success in Syria than the US has. But the danger of Russia winning the battle of perception is that this might be viewed in the Middle East as a full blown US retreat. Putin will be more than happy to see this view gain more and more currency. Uncertainties abound.

While new strategies will not be formulated by the US and allies for triumphalism, the idea would be to salvage their pride. What more can the ISIS ask for than a battlefield left, abandoned and deserted lock, stock and barrel to overrun?

By Shitanshu Shekhar Shukla