Modi has to play cards smartly, deal with Trump creatively
Change of governments and evolving geopolitics mean that Modi 3.0 would see PM Narendra Modi exert a greater push to external affairs than ever before. It is inarguable that Modi has over the past decade elevated India’s standing in the comity of nations by keenly investing in relations with global leaders, striking a personal rapport with many. It needs no stressing that Modi tops global ratings and is one of the most popular global leaders today. He deftly navigated the treacherous diplomatic waters and could endear India to almost all nations.
The current global geopolitics are marked by the persistence of shocks such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and US-China tensions, as superpowers pursue their interests, relegating global peace, energy and climate to the background. The rise of nationalism, particularly of the far-right, and protectionism is threatening to shake up global structures and relationships. The arrival of Donald Trump on the world stage is complicating things, especially for the developing world.
It is faced with these challenges and more that PM Modi will be embarking on his US visit on February 12-13 to meet with Trump. He will proceed to the US after the Paris meet on Artificial Intelligence on February 10-11. Trump himself announced about Modi’s visit late last month. In his congratulatory telephone call with Trump on January 27, Modi had expressed keenness to work with him for global peace and security and advance US-India cooperation in many areas.
Modi’s relationship with Donald Trump goes a long way back. Trump had in the past showered praise upon Modi and held in high esteem. Global attention will be riveted on how Modi would persuade his long-time friend to understand India’s as also global concerns. Even Zelenskyy of Ukraine is pinning hopes on Modi to push for ceasefire and peace by involving Trump to prevail upon Putin.
Driven by his zealous pursuit of his battle cry MAGA (Make America Great Again), Trump has begun his second term by causing ‘shock and awe’ to the world. His tariff warnings and inward-looking measures such as shuttering USAID, exiting Paris Climate Treaty etc., are causing concerns and consternation among governments. He has asked Canada to merge with the USA, and staked claim to Greenland and Panama Canal, warning he could use military or economic coercion to achieve his ends. His diktat to Gazans to leave their land has plunged the world in shock. He also threatened 100% tariffs on the BRICS bloc, including India, if it attempted de-dollarisation. There is a naked display of impatience and impertinence.
In the run-up to polls, Trump had called out India as ‘the biggest charger of tariffs,’ ‘tariff king’ and a ‘very big trade abuser’. The reason: India has a trade surplus of $35 billion with the US. In a bid to soothe Trump’s frayed temper, India just slashed customs duties on high-end motorcycles, cars and smartphone parts.
The US President now signed an order that will hurt India’s interests as it targets Iran’s Chabahar port being developed by India. It helps India source cheap Iranian oil and counterbalance the influence of Pakistan and China in the Indian Ocean and Central Asia. In the face of this aggressive and transactional worldview by Trump, Modi will be required to deftly pursue India’s interests. Inhumane treatment of illegal Indian immigrants is a touchy area.
It is hoped Modi will draw upon his diplomatic prowess and personal equation with Trump to draw his attention to pressing global issues and India’s interests. India is a strategic partner of the United States, especially in Indo-Pacific to counter China. Getting an increasingly protectionist US to provide critical and emerging technologies and commit to boost investments in India is another key concern for India.
