Congress win will force everyone to change script

Karnataka finally delivered its ‘Man ki Baat’ and the Congress is rocking with a solid performance. It has brushed aside all its blues to register a splendid victory. The party really needed this lease of life. It has been mortally wounded in almost all its duels with the BJP and had even lost to the AAP in Punjab. Himachal Pradesh was an anticipated victory and not much could be made out of it anyway due to its size.

Secondly, for a party like the Congress which is a behemoth despite its losses suffered in recent times, a lot of 'fuel' is required to run it smoothly. The Modi-Shah duo has been too clever to allow funds to flow to their main rival. Fighting an election is easier said than done. Elections are fought not only on ideological grounds but also on financial basis in these times.

If a party does not have money to splurge on its leaders, cadres and (as is happening now-a-days) on the voters, winning remains a distant dream unless there is a serious anti-incumbency wave. Ask Mayawati and she would appreciate this question more than any. She had everything at her disposal with her social engineering base yet lost out to the BJP finally and could never recover.

Telugu Desam Party, despite its financial strength, was outmatched by the YSRCP in 2019 elections. Jagan Mohan Reddy in a well-planned execution of his welfare schemes still makes it difficult for them to clear the hurdle. Poor Arvind Kejriwal allegedly had to rely upon 'liquor' to fund the elections.

This being the case, gaining a state like Karnataka which has a vast potential thanks to its capital is not an ordinary benefit. AICC must be heaving a sigh of relief over the very thought of coming back to power in a rich State. This development lends more teeth as well muscle to the party. Anyway, as the credit will be taken by Rahul Gandhi for the win, he could become his natural self, shedding his cultivated discipline and accommodative nature in sharing power with others. What if he brushes his 'attitude' once again and puts it on display?

This is the real outcome of Karnataka. Forget the 'Himantas' and 'Scindias' of the party – these will anyway be cornered now for entertaining any anti-party notions – the real trouble that is in store is for the Opposition.

The BJP which has thrived on the Opposition disunity after the perceived decimation of the Congress in the country may as well relax now a bit. There have been whispers in the higher echelons of the BJP for quite some time now that the rout of the Congress could go against the BJP's interests in the long run.

A complete destruction of the Congress as sought by the BJP originally – Congress-mukt Bharat – was never in the interest of the party. The Congress faced much denting in the hands of its own leaders in the past who later walked out and established their own identities. Their retail shops had grown into regional power houses, threatening the very existence of the Congress.

Mamata, Chandrababu Naidu, Sharad Pawar, Jagan Mohan Reddy and KCR to name a few. And then the AAP too had become quite aggressive curtailing the Congress space further. These parties together not only destroyed the Congress but also began threatening the BJP goals.

A section of the BJP leadership, hence, has been wary of the free run the regional parties are having in the States they are in power and the liberty they have in opposing everything that the Centre does, owing to the absence of any national compunctions or national policies.

These parties don't have to blink at anything and can join any group at Jantar Mantar and get away with it, be it farmers, students, civil society members or even wrestlers. Their voice is shriller compared to the Congress in attacking Modi and has been damaging the BJP image more. In addition, these have been blaming the Centre for their governance failures.

"Centre is not cooperating" is their standard attack. Like the much-weakened Congress, even the BJP was being pushed into a state of choicelessness over the rivalry which often took a turn towards litigation much to the chagrin of the ruling party.

With the regional parties thus emboldened or 'politically empowered' to ill-treat the Congress leadership, there has always been little room for political manoeuvres for the Congress.

It has not been in a bargaining position. This in turn led to these leaders audaciously positioning themselves against the pole position of the Congress. Some of them even began nurturing dreams of ruling the country ignoring the fact that Congress after all is a true national party.

Be that as it may, what shall these leaders do now with the perceived revival of the Congress? Could they snub Sonia or Rahul over any suggestion of a joint meeting or plan of action? This could be a distant possibility, but now these people will learn to treat the Congress with greater respect. It is going to be more filmy where the retired don comes back to his once upon a time chelas to settle scores.

The tone and tenor of the Congress leadership also changes now either in attacking the BJP or in subjugating the regional leadership. The grand old party has yielded a lot of ground to the anti-BJP parties in recent times and even agreed to play a second fiddle.

It is the Congress turn now to draw a Laxman Rekha for such 'behavioural disorders.' With this one win in Karnataka, the Congress leadership could get mercurial and more insistent. States like Rajasthan do not alter the finances of any party much even if those are in one's kitty. But, Karnataka does.

If the Congress leadership of states not in power feels elated at the outcome now, it is understandable. Secondly, there won't be much talk of Prime Ministership in future. Parties like the BRS and its leadership will have to rethink their plans and national roles. Matured leaders like Sharad Pawar will continue to keep their options open and instill more discipline among his netas.

If the Congress plays it right and harps on all the right points in the run-up to the 2024 general elections, it could only gain further. That would silence non-BJP parties' criticism of the Congress to a great extent.

What would AAP do now? Close ranks with the Congress? Or for that matter Mamata who is quite wary of losing her minority vote to the Congress? Even Akhilesh will have to be more mellowed and subdued in future and weigh in the political prospects of both joining hands with the Congress or in keeping a distance from it.

Karnataka will change every ones' script. It could even spell more trouble for the anti-BJP parties and cause them more trauma. Imagine a triangle scenario if the Opposition is not fully united.

It could only benefit the BJP. Yes, interesting times, politically, anyway. The run-up to the general elections has become dicier!