Donald Trump's re-election is imminent
Presidential elections in USA are barely 15 days away and most of the polls are indicating Joe Biden has a clear lead over President Donald Trump in many battle-ground states
Presidential elections in USA are barely 15 days away and most of the polls are indicating Joe Biden has a clear lead over President Donald Trump in many battle-ground states. Even on the ground it seems like there's a huge bump in support for Joe Biden, as those voting for him are quite vocal about their choice. Joe Biden's voters are articulating the reasons for their choice publicly and effectively. There's an eerie silence from Trump's voters all along this campaign, however I see a silent vote of tsunami coming.
My remote analysis from India, of the elector-behaviour, pattern of emotional expression, and political context in the backdrop of recent civic unrest and Covid 19, leads me to a clear conclusion. Donald Trump's re-election as President of United States is imminent.
I completely understand that a week in politics is a long time and nothing is done, till it's done. Nevertheless, I have formidable reasons to back my claim, which is going against all the polls indicating a different result favoring Joe Biden.
I am calling the election outcome in favour of President Donald Trump, and I also foresee both popular and electoral college vote will lead him to victory by big margin and clear majority.
Below are some key factors I have analysed for projecting President Trump's clear victory in this election:
CEO OF USA
President Trump certainly was never a regular Commander-in-Chief of the USA throughout his term. He was and continues to be an unconventional leader of the state, that America and the world has never experienced before.
He actually played the role of a CEO and was quite successful at that throughout his term, if one were to assess the outcomes of his policy impact in real numbers. Trump has undone much of the past decisions to reconstruct a new path of progress for America. He has walked out of global accords, broken unfair trade agreements, deserted exploiting allies, withdrawn support to UN bodies, threatened trade partners with new tariffs to achieve his agenda of 'Making America Great Again'.
Many of these decisions are impossible to make, if one acts in the traditional mould of the POTUS. President Trump broke many rules, traditions, practices and built a path-breaking legacy of his own.
Analysing President Trump's full-term performance against his voter expectations clearly establishes that he has outdone them and delivered a 'voter-delight' as the CEO of USA. As I see, he will lose no votes from those who voted for him in 2016, for his performance.
Covid-19 and its aftermath is not of President Trump's making. In fact, his traditional voters and swing voters will rally behind Donald Trump more, for how effectively his administration has handled the crisis. Massive deaths due to Covid-19 in USA is more for the lack of treatment methods for this gigantic pandemic, than any specific policy failure of the federal government.
In fact, unlike Europe and many other nations, President Trump did not panic and surrender to Covid-19. Instead, he took a strong position very early in the Covid-19 timeline against general public and global opinion, to not impose a nationwide compulsive shutdown. This critical decision eventually ended up protecting many jobs and the economy.
An immediate slew of Covid-19 relief measure to small businesses, medium-scale employers, infusing millions of dollars into research for treatment and vaccine, are very efficient and timely decisions to mitigate the direct impact of this pandemic on people's lives.
Despite USA being the top Covid-19 infected nation in the world, President Trump's adamant but right decisions ensured 'life as usual' and 'business as usual' in a very less turnaround time, causing minimal pain in comparison to many other nations, which have been deeply unsettled socially and economically.
President Trump certainly is not a role-model for Covid-19 safety protocols, and his public image has certainly been dented by his unruliness. He possibly would have even temporarily lost few of his loyal voters for his brazenness in violating the safety protocols.
However, I see the return of miffed voters to choose Trump over Joe Biden, after a dining table family discussion on the successful resurrection of normalcy in the nation, despite all his disliked optics.
Covid-19 is the only large obstacle President Trump seemed to have faced at the fag end of his term, which led to the current electoral situation of a serious contest. If it was not for the 10-month long ordeal of this pandemic, President Trump's re-election would have been 'Walk -in-the-Park'.
In my analysis, Trump's competent handling of Covid-19 with federal government support extended to states, timely decisions to expand and equip the national health infrastructure and his comic ability to reduce panic, has created a Pre-Covid-19 electoral situation for President Trump. The electoral outcome will prove my analysis right, with the return of all his cynics back to his side.
Joe Biden factor
The 'Joe Biden - Kamala Harris' ticket has made things easier for President Trump. An aggressive articulator and persuasive Democrat like the New York Governor Cumo could have built some real contest against Donald Trump than a tired and almost retired Joe Biden.
In a well-structured and a functional democracy like USA, especially in the contemporary times of 'messaging-means-everything', Donald Trump brings raw aggression, clear vision, executive competence and un-conventional wisdom to the table, alongside an impeccable full term of positive track record on all hot-button national issues like jobs, economy, education, health and social security.
In my structured assessment of electoral behaviour across states, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris will experience huge disappointment, as they might end up losing many swing states like Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio and North Carolina to Donald Trump despite all the polls showing a big lead for Democrats in all these states with an exception of Ohio.
Visual strength, optics, dynamism and unconventional physical appeal of President Trump is unmatched to almost reticent, low-energy, no-optics campaign of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. I foresee this factor will play a very big role in the choice of voters in swing states.
The unpresented arson and riots have taken a massive psychological toll and unsettled many law abiding, god fearing, hardworking American citizens. Especially, when arson, loot and vandalism were not contained and condemned enough by states run by Democrat Governors, it led to public dismay cut across party lines.
Racial discrimination, inequality, injustice and use of excessive force by police are all undeniably great causes to fight for in a democracy. However, the direction peaceful democratic protests have taken across the nation in an unprecedented pattern driven by hate, leading to loot and destruction of personal property has evoked massive resentment.
Republican voters are enraged, as their agenda espouses nationalist pride, law and order and constitutional process. However, the moderates and swing voters seem to be hit by this unruliness too. In fact, even many Democrats leaning to Left would disapprove this level of lawlessness and vandalism in the name of protests.
I foresee an angry American voter against the recent backdrop of riots, loot and vandalism choosing President Trump over Democrat candidates in this election. The unison of nationalists, patriots, peace-lovers, law-abiders, hardworking entrepreneurs, blue-collared labor, constitutionalists and of course the Republicans can create a huge ground swell for President Donald Trump, in both Red and Blue states.
There are many other factors which were analysed to arrive at a projection for calling this election result this early, however space constraint led me to highlight just the prime factors.
As I foresee, President Donald Trump is not vacating the White House in January 2021.
Disclaimer: This objective analytical opinion-piece is written in my professional capacity as an Organisational Strategist. This is not in any way a partisan position.
( K.Krishna Saagar Rao is an internationally reputed Organisational Strategist / Leadership Coach & An Author.)