Pakistan may exploit security threats to expand military influence: Report

Islamabad: Pakistan’s current trajectory reflects the continuation of long-standing patterns in which domestic instability and regional security threats are used to justify expanding military influence and expenditure, a report has stated.

As the country grapples with economic reform pressures, political turmoil, persistent insurgencies and worsening ties with Afghanistan, the risk of history repeating itself remains significant. The security establishment could once again exploit these challenges to consolidate its institutional dominance, perpetuating a cycle in which short-term stabilisation comes at the cost of long-term democratic and economic development, according to a report in the 'International Centre for Peace Studies.'

The report noted that the surge in militant attacks in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) had deepened tensions between the federal government and the provincial administration. The provincial government had advocated counterterrorism strategies tailored to the region’s local complexities, a stance that created friction with the centre, it added.

The report also identified the ongoing insurgency in Balochistan, marked by a recent surge in attacks on military convoys, as a significant challenge for Pakistan.

Highlighting the growing border tensions, it said clashes broke out along the Pakistan–Afghanistan frontier soon after the Taliban’s return to power in 2021, contrary to Islamabad’s expectations that the new regime in Kabul would strengthen security along its western border.

Pakistan has since experienced a surge in militant attacks, prompting Islamabad to repeatedly accuse the Taliban government of providing safe havens to the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which it blames for many of the attacks. The Taliban administration, however, rejects the allegations and holds Pakistan responsible for its own security problems, the report mentioned.

Emphasising how Pakistani authorities have often used domestic and regional security challenges to justify increased defence spending and strengthen the military’s role in national affairs, it said, “Such policies have, at various times, received Western financial and military support. The threat from Afghanistan could once again serve this purpose, potentially reinforcing a cycle in which a new militant group like the TTP emerges, creating new security challenges and providing further justification for military expenditure.”

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