Clash of the Titans to Set Tone for LS Polls

With dates for the Assembly elections announced for the five States of Mizoram, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Telangana, it’s all set for the fiery battle of the ballots between the Congress and the BJP. In most of the States, the tussle will be between both these parties, pitching for the first place to form the Government. In Telangana, however, the BRS is hoping to retain power, though the national parties will try to wrest power from it.

Interestingly, in all these States, both the Congress and the BJP are equally poised, except for Mizoram, where the fight will be between the Mizo National Front (MNF) and the Congress. The MNF defeated the Congress in the last elections, bagging 26 out of the 40 seats, beating it in its last bastion in the North-Eastern States.

Having been trounced in a string of elections, both in the Assembly and the Lok Sabha, the Congress under Rahul Gandhi seems to be in a competitive mode this time, having formed an opinion on crucial issues, rather than remaining ambivalent, as in the past. For each of the issues, the Congress is ready to counter the BJP, whether it is the Women’s Reservation Bill, or playing the Hindutva Card, leaving the BJP in a quandary.

While earlier, Rajiv Gandhi had vehemently opposed giving reservations to the OBCs and playing the Mandal Card, Rahul Gandhi, from day one, has been supporting reservations for the Backwards. Rajiv Gandhi, in his Parliament Speech on September 6, 1990, while opposing the Mandal Commission Report, had pointed out that the Constitution differentiates between Scheduled Castes and Backward Classes. Rajiv Gandhi asked,” Why did the Constitution-makers make this distinction? They had something in their mind. Why did we lose that distinction today?”

Making a complete U-turn, Rahul Gandhi has gone as far as apologizing for not incorporating reservations to the OBCs, within the ambit of 33 per cent, in the Women’s Reservation Bill that was brought by the Congress-led UPA Government and passed in 2010. This time, he demanded reservation for the Backwards in the Women’s Reservation Bill (popularly known as Nari Shakti Vandan Adhiniyam) that was passed in the Special Session of Parliament recently. The demand, supported by other Opposition Parties, has taken the wind out of the BJP sails. As soon as the dates for the Assembly elections were declared, Rahul Gandhi was quick to address the media, flanked by all his four Chief Ministers, announcing that they will come-up with the Caste Census if elected to power.

The Congress has decided to play tit-for-tat. While for the BJP, it has been Hindu versus Muslims, ever since the Ram Mandir was brought on its political agenda at the Plenary Session in Palampur in 1989, the Congress has been busy, playing the appeasement card. All these years, the BJP has succeeded in polarizing the society, thus gaining ground electorally in every successive election. The Congress, on the other hand, has been crying hoarse from the roof-top, accusing the BJP of dividing the society along communal lines.

The larger idea behind the Caste Census seems to be to build a huge coalition of SC, ST, OBC and Minority. Caste Census will provide the data and the numbers, based on which it can formulate an inclusive development agenda.

It was after the rout of the Congress in the Lok Sabha polls in 2014 that the Antony Committee Report found fault with the appeasement policy towards the Muslims for its defeat. It felt that the reason for the defeat of the Congress was that while the Majority sided with the BJP, the Minority vote was divided among the Secular parties. Having learnt its lesson from its fast fading popularity, the Congress has now imbibed the BJP’s policy of Hindutva, to woo the Majority vote. Instead of wooing the Minorities that constitute only 18 per cent of the population, the Congress is exhibiting its new-found love for the Hindus.

In Madhya Pradesh, Congress Chief Ministerial Candidate Kamal Nath has been branding himself as Hanuman Bakht, while both Rahul and Priyanka have visited all the Temples across the nation, to show that they are no less Hindus than the BJP leaders. Chhattisgarh Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel is not only on a spree of building cow-shelters, but his Government has launched a scheme to buy cow urine at Rs 4 a litre from cow-rearers, in order to make cow politics sustainable by linking it with rural economic activity.

In fact, the Congress has learnt from its past mistakes. Instead of beating around the bush, it has been brazen in adopting the policy, which, according to its leaders, will fetch them votes. The thin line between its Idea of India and Hindutva has been blurred in the Congress, as awareness has finally dawned on the party leaders that they have to pursue a goal, instead of just condemning their rivals.

For the BJP, it has become tough as their Hindutva agenda seems to have run out of its steam and the targeting of Rahul Gandhi has also fizzled out, to some extent. Though Rahul is no match to Narendra Modi, the former has come of age and is seen to be much more mature and a seasoned politician than ever before. Certainly, he can’t be termed as Pappu any more, as his interactions with the media and the public at large have increased manifold. The short speeches have turned big and instead of attacks on Adani, the focus has shifted on to the OBCs, the welfare schemes and the overall development of the country.

For the first time, there seems to be nervousness & panic in the BJP ranks, as their agenda has not only been stolen, but countered by the Congress. The very fact that the Ministers and MPs have been fielded in the three States of Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan makes it evident that the BJP is unsure of winning the elections. Earlier, in the Lok Sabha polls of 2014 and 2019, the candidates did not matter, as the polls were fought in the name of Narendra Modi. After the defeat of the BJP in Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka, the confidence level of the BJP has been eroding.

For both the BJP and the Congress, elections to the five States are crucial, as these will set the tone for the larger electoral battle in 2024, where they would be pitted against each other in the Lok Sabha elections. No matter who is the contender for the post of Chief Minister from each side, the real battle is between Modi and Rahul, the duo, who are the titans in their own party.