Why BJP has an edge in Uttar Pradesh

Varanasi: As the five phases of seven-phase 2019 General Elections are over across 424 MP seats now and sixth phase is scheduled for Sunday (today), the focus has now shifted to who or which political formation will emerge victorious when votes are counted on May 23.

But the key element here is that Uttar Pradesh, which sends 80 MPs - 15 per cent of the total 543 - to Lok Sabha, invariably holds key to the power at the Centre.

That was the case in past and it's no different this time too. Going by the prevailing trend in UP, BJP, which won 71 out of 80 and two more with partner Apna Dal in 2014 may walk away with a lion share of around 55 seats in this election as well.

No surprise if the saffron brigade repeats 2014 performance. As travels by The Hans India to several places in UP have revealed, there are multiple factors that have put BJP in an advantageous position in the country's biggest state with over 20 crore population.

TINA factor Not long ago, Congress enjoyed TINA factor- There Is No Alternative. That was reason why all non-Congress parties, including BJP, came together in 1989 and 1990s to defeat Congress.

Times have literally changed in the last five years and it's role reversal now. It's BJP that is enjoying TINA factor these days thanks to the Modi wave in 2014, which helped the saffron party cross the half-way mark in Lok Sabha after a gap of over three decades.

"If not Modi, who?" is the common comment people make when asked about the chances of Modi becoming Prime Minister again. Opposition has failed to project a prime ministerial face.

That's a big advantage for BJP and its mercurial leader Modi. At least, SP-BSP combine should have projected Mayawati as prime ministerial aspirant from UP.

"There is no one in the Opposition camp who can effectively take on Modi" is a general perception among people on the street in UP.

Pro Modi sentiment In Varanasi, the abode of Kasi Viswanath, it is Narendra Modi all the way. Going by the public reaction, he is expected to retain Varanasi Lok Sabha seat with a landslide margin.

If BJP enjoys across the country half of the goodwill that Narendra Modi is enjoying in Varanasi, it will repeat 2014 performance this time too.

The interesting trend in UP is that though many people are not happy with BJP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, they still prefer Narendra Modi when it comes to Lok Sabha polls. This trend is visible across UP.

It is a clear indication that like in 2014, there is a pro Modi sentiment in Uttar Pradesh and people are keen to give a second consecutive term to the Gujarati strongman.

Further, many people in Amethi, the home turf of Congress president and prime ministerial aspirant Rahul Gandhi, also feel that the Modi government has done something, and he deserves a win. That was view expressed even by those people who voted for Congress for decades and would have done so this time too.

Chinks in SP-BSP combine For the first time after decades of acrimonious rivalry, Samajwadi Party led by Akhilesh Yadav and Bhahujan Samaj Party (BSP) led by Dalit leader Kumari Mayawati formed an alliance to put up a collective fight against the saffron brigade.

In 2012, SP formed State government in UP with full majority while BSP was in Opposition. Previously, BSP was in power between 2007 and 2012 on its own while SP was in Opposition. After drubbing in 2014 General Elections and 2017 Assembly elections, these parties realised that they can't take on BJP individually.

In 2014 elections, BJP secured 42.30 per cent votes in UP while SP and BSP got 22.2 per cent and 19.6 per cent respectively. As SP and BSP formed an alliance now, their combined vote share works out to be 41.8 per cent vis-a-vis BJP's 42.30 per cent as per 2014 numbers.

That means SP-BSP combine and BJP are on an equal-footing. Further, the combine won all the by-elections for Lok Sabha. It also roped in Ajith Singh-led RLD.

This has raised hopes among Opposition parties that SP-BSP combine will outsmart BJP in UP. But the fact of the matter is that as BSP and SP cadre fought with each at ground level for so long that it is not easy for them to bury the hatchet and work together.

Other key element is that people feel that the two caste-based regional parties came together to defeat Modi and they have no other agenda.

Congress In 2014, Congress secured 9 per cent votes, but only won two seats - the Gandhi family bastions of Amethi and Raebareli. However, SP-BSP kept the old political horse away from their alliance, leaving just Amethi and Raebareli to it.

As consequence, Congress is forced to contest in all seats with its own allies, making the UP battle a three-way fight, which will naturally benefit BJP.

However, there is a talk of 'Operation Priyanka' in political circles, under which Congress has field strong candidates in 20 constituencies to split BJP vote bank, thereby benefitting SP-BSP alliance.

It is to be seen how far this strategy will work in favour of Opposition parties as Congress lacks the wherewithal and acumen to implement its political strategies in UP where it is literally in shambles.

As a senior leader in Lucknow confided to The Hans India, most of the Congress candidates are a demoralised lot and there is no way they can offer a strong fight.

Development People cutting across caste lines say there has been development across Uttar Pradesh in the last five year. They say UP has better roads, better power supply and better infrastructure now. And they attribute the development to Modi.

It goes without saying that Uttar Pradesh had given a new leash of life to BJP in 2014 as it handed the saffron party a landslide victory and played key role in BJP getting clear majority at the Centre.

In this backdrop, the Modi government seems to have focused on the State and have made efforts to nurture UP into a bastion for BJP. As a voter recounted in Ayodhya, power was so erratic in those days that they were lucky if they had power for a day in a week.

But in these days, they are enjoying 24X7 power. Free gas cylinders, construction of free toilets, cash doles to farmers and health scheme, Ayushman Bharat, have also created positive vibes among voters.

Demonetisation The country was on in 'cash chaos' for several months after the Narendra Modi government announced demonetisation of high-value currency notes in November 2016.

People across the country vented their anger against the BJP government for imposing noteban exercise on them without visible gains.

Industry and trade, a traditional support base for the saffron party, took a big hit. So was also the economy. Many predicted that demonetisation would prove to be an Achilles heel for the saffron party.

However, UP went to polls four months after the ill-advised exercise and BJP notched up its biggest victory in the country's biggest state, bagging 325 Assembly seats out of 403.

Interestingly, UP people still support the noteban and say it has been the best move by the Modi government, which hit corrupt people.

"But for the demonetisation, land rates would have skyrocketed in Uttar Pradesh. It was a bolt from blue for those who accumulated illicit wealth," a taxi driver told The Hans India in Lucknow.