Nepal economy shattered by quake, recovery to take years

Initial estimates peg the economic damage from the temblor that killed more than 5,000 people at billions of dollars. The tourism industry, a pillar of the economy, has been shattered and it's unclear when the travelers will return.

"It's been devastating. Their tourism economy has obviously come to a halt," said Rajiv Biswas, Asia-Pacific economist with IHS. "I don't know when it would be realistic for tourists to again visit Nepal."

Biswas forecasts the cost of reconstruction could exceed $5 billion or about 20 percent of Nepal's economy. An initial estimate by the U.S. Geological Service reckons damages of $1 billion to $10 billion. Other analysts say it's far too early to assess the full cost.

Tourism provides 7 percent of Nepal's jobs and accounts for 8 percent of the economy, according to the Asian Development Bank.

"I've had all my reservations cancelled. I have nil bookings left," said Hari Man Lama, of Incentive Tours, a travel company in Kathmandu. "This disaster is going to bring a big loss to the travel industry and to the tens of thousands of people who depend on the tourists for their livelihood."

Last year nearly 800,000 people visited Nepal, home to eight of the world's 14 tallest peaks, including 8,848-meter (29,029-foot) Mount Everest, the world's highest. The quake, which struck in the middle of the tourist high season, destroyed nearly half of the UNESCO World Heritage sites in Kathmandu and triggered avalanches on Everest that killed 19. It's the latest setback for the industry, which suffered two tragedies in 2014.

Travelers are canceling trips as governments issue advisories to stay away. Those still in the country are scrambling to get home.

"Tourists are fleeing because of the continuing aftershocks, which have brought fear and terror," said Lama. "There's fear of the spread of disease because of the dead bodies that are still unburied and the lack of water and supplies."

Last April, the climbing season was cut short when 16 Sherpa guides were killed by an avalanche on Everest. In October, nearly four dozen foreign trekkers, guides and villagers were killed by snow storms and avalanches that swept the Annapurna region.

Three of the seven World Heritage sites in the Kathmandu Valley have been severely damaged, including Durbar Square with pagodas and temples dating from the 15th to 18th centuries, according to UNESCO, the United Nations cultural agency.

"The damage to these cultural landmarks will have a significant economic impact," said Alok Bohara, head of the University of New Mexico's Nepal Study Center.

He said similar cultural rebuilding was carried out after another major earthquake struck in 1934, and it could be done again by master artisans provided they're given enough resources.

"This is utterly vital because not only the whole valley economy depends on these cultural icons, but it will affect many other tourism-related economic activities all across Nepal," Bohara said.