India's north-west highly volatile

December has frequently been a momentous month for India’s geopolitics, impacted by events taking place far and near. December 1971 saw the India-Pakistan conflict and the birth of Bangladesh. December 1979 saw the invasion of the erstwhile Soviet Union’s forces on Afghanistan, changing the region’s course ever since. Twenty years later, December 1999 saw the hijacking of an Indian aircraft to Kandahar in Taliban-ruled Afghanistan, a relatively smaller event, but it has defined India’s approach to its northwest, both Pakistan and Afghanistan.

And now, as the world, not just India, is bewildered how youths seduced by social media propaganda have turned Islamist militants, joining the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), comes the most heinous of the events – because it pertains to innocent school children --- of the militants’ killing 132 of them in Peshawar.

India has expressed solidarity with Pakistan, with the President, the Prime Minister and Parliament condemning it in strong terms. Children in every school in India and Pakistan, as elsewhere, have held prayer meetings. There are no words strong enough to condemn the Pakistani Taliban. Why, even the Afghan Taliban have condemned the students’ killing as “un-Islamic.”

All this is happening in India’s volatile North-West, when the United States and NATO forces have formally ended their military presence in Afghanistan and are conducting their victory-less withdrawal. It is doubtful how the Afghans will preserve their independence when the Taliban led by Mullah Omar are waiting to cross the border and try to recapture Kabul, with Pakistan’s help. It is also doubtful whether Peshawar killings will chastise Pakistan into continuing with its military operations and not interfere with Afghan affairs. The threat perceptions for the entire region have enhanced manifolds, ironically. from immediate neighbours and distant players alike.

The thing to note is that while the States are engaging in negotiations that are getting nowhere --- each one has own turf to preserve at the cost of others – it is the non-state actors who, whether or not united, certainly have a unity of purpose. The ISIS and Al Qaida and their affiliates all across Asia and Africa, many of their brains from Europe and America, are advancing. They want to establish Caliphate wherever the Muslim populations are significant. Iraq and Syria are supposed to be only the first big chunk to be covered.

In South Asia, it covers territory right up to Myanmar, as per the plans of “Ahrar-ul-Hind”, one of the many outfits that have their roots in Pakistan, the global Jihad Factory. Pakistan has also provided the chief of Al Qaida’s South Asia Unit whose objective seems similar to Ahrar-ul-Hind. The numerous militant outfits in Pakistan, who have been affiliates of Al Qaida, while some of them have changed their allegiance to ISIS, are providing fighters from operations conducted by both. The picture is as much complex and confusing as it is grim. India has no choice but to strengthen its internal and external security. That makes the ban on ISIS essential.

By: Mahendra Ved