A growing threat to India

Top of the agenda should be a national law that gives teeth to the governments – both central and in states – to tackle terrorism in all forms. That counter terrorism is not just a law and order issue needs to be understood at all levels. The mistakes that thwarted the setting up of National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC) should not be repeated. It is overdue. The political class should stop scoring brownie points at the cost of the nation’s security

“Terrorism and deception are weapons not of the strong, but of the weak.”

- Mahatma Gandhi

The Mahatma was absolutely right. But the twin phenomena in his time must have been benign compared to what the world is facing today. Twice in a matter of a quarter century, it has been caught napping. First, it was Al Qaida and now US President Barack Obama belatedly admits, after the damage is done and continues to play havoc, that the rise of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) is the result of the US-led intervention in Iraq and elsewhere.

We live in a world, more insecure than ever before, even as we lose precious lives and spend billions to be safe. How does India meet the challenge of growing terrorism in its neighbourhood, far and near?

A high profile international conference at Jaipur, having an official stamp with the presence of several Union Ministers led by Home Minister Raj Nath Singh and National Security Advisor Ajit Doval, one of the organizers being the latter’ son Shaurya Doval, grappled with a whole gamut of issues.

Contributing to the discourse were two scores of eminent analysts from abroad. Among them was Sri Lanka’s Gen. Sarath Fonseka, who played a key role in crushing Tamil militants of the LTTE. Amirullah Saleh, Afghanistan’s former National Security Advisor has tackled the Taliban and from Pakistan, journalist Rahuimullah Yusufzai and Ayesha Siddiqua, both of whom have observed and written about militancy and the role of the military establishment in both curbing and promoting it.

So, India had a vivid look at the way security issues play out in immediate neighbourhood, most of them having their unique problems arising from faith, region or ethnicity. Since they are far apart, but have a common border with India, their impact needs to be analysed. Rajnath Singh dismissed the ISIS as having no impact on India and as Indian Muslims are ‘patriots’ and well integrated into the nation’s mainstream, the problem, he said, was confined to “only a handful.”

The Minister seemed generous towards the youth of the country’s largest minority that numbers a whopping 150 million and even broadly correct, but did not seem incisive. Short of its political veneer, his statement seemed rooted in its immediacy, while ISIS is an evolving phenomenon and at India’s doorsteps. It is spreading its tentacles from West Asia to Southeast Asia. It is drawing recruits from this vast Asian region that extends to Chechens from Russia, Central Asians and the Chinese Uighours.

The Minister could not be unmindful or ignoring the “handful” who come from Kalyan in Maharashtra, Bangaluru, Hyderabad and some other cities, some of them techies who would be in demand anywhere. Then, there are second or third generation Muslim youths from Europe who have grown on the periphery of the societies dominated by the Christian whites, feel alienated.

Coming from far-off United States are not just callow, impressionable youths seduced by the propaganda material available on the Internet. Some are out of job “dogs of war” who have experienced thrill engaging in many a conflict across the world involving the American military. They are now mercenaries, may be small in numbers, but lethal in terms of expertise and experience.It is a heady mix of manpower in terms of talent and motivation, hugely supported by funds.

Paradoxically, as had happened and continues in the case of Al Qaida, the funds principally come from the Gulf region – the very place that is most threatened. ISIS is reputed to be the world’s richest rebel movement. Add to that the network nurtured by affiliation of bodies having similar ideologies and objectives spread across Asia, Africa and Europe.

Closer home, Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and its splinter groups like Jundullah have switched allegiance from Al Qaida to ISIS, something the Afghan Taliban have not done. The TTP is waging a protracted war against the State, targeting defence establishments and unarmed civilians with impunity, even as it is vigorously pursued by the Pakistan security forces whose Zarb-e-Azb operation has completed nine months.

Pakistan-based terrorist groups, including Lashkar-e-Taiba, will shift their operational focus on India after the scheduled complete drawdown of US troops from Afghanistan by the end of next year, Admiral Samuel J Locklear, Commander of the US Pacific Command, has told the US Congress.According to him, the ongoing conflict in Syria and Iraq attracts foreign fighters from countries throughout the Indo-Asia Pacific.

Current assessments indicate that approximately 1,300 foreign personnel fighting alongside the Islamic State are from the Indo-Asia-Pacific. "In South Asia, partner nations maintain pressure on extremist networks but face a persistent threat from transnational groups that continue adapting to shifting geopolitical factors, competition among global extremist groups, and counterterrorism actions by the US and its regional allies," he added.

So, the picture to the West is grim. To India’s east is a thriving Islamist movement in Bangladesh that is fighting the Sheikh Hasina Government with daily street battles for the past many months, using various forms of violence like petrol bombs, while targeting prominent opponents. The bloody confrontation has paralysed the country politically and socially, badly hitting the economy.

There is no end in sight, be it the political confrontation in Bangladesh that has serious religious dimensions or the implosion taking place in Pakistan. Not too far away is the ISIS rise in the Maldives. All this impacts India’s security.The Jaipur conclave, one would imagine, would boost the security vision of the Modi government. But having talked, which would have to continue since terrorism itself is an evolving process – it is time to act.

Top of the agenda should be a national law that gives teeth to the governments – both central and in states – to tackle terrorism in all forms. That counter terrorism is not just law and order issue needs to be understood at all levels. The mistakes that thwarted the setting up of National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC) should not be repeated. It is overdue. The political class should stop scoring brownie points at the cost of the nation’s security.

This inevitably leads to “political management” of national security. A nation can be strong only if the society enjoys a measure of harmony. This is a serious challenge, given our diversity. What the government does, what the political class does, what the lawmakers do and how media and the civil society function provide the key to harmony, howsoever relative in terms.

That being the case, if our politicians and lawmakers say and do things that are divisive, if places of worship are attacked, if confrontation develops on the basis of faith, caste, region or language, if communities or groups are subjected to violence, if women and children feel unsafe in their homes, schools and at work, even walking on the road, then no amount of policing can guarantee security from traditional threats, leave alone terrorism.