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How May 7 election could break UK, EU
How May 7 election could break UK, EU. As the May 7th British election approaches, a worrisome scenario about the outcome in the polls emerges: neither of the two major parties will enough votes to form a government.
As the May 7th British election approaches, a worrisome scenario about the outcome in the polls emerges: neither of the two major parties will enough votes to form a government. This means that the balance of power is tipping to smaller parties with nationalistic and local agendas. That’s scary, as the country runs the risk of being ruled by a multi-party coalition government with an anti-UK, anti-EU and anti-global agenda.
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This sort of agenda could spell trouble for UK, EU, and eventually the global economy in a number of ways. First, it could renew momentum for Scottish independence and end up breaking the UK. Second, it could lead to a national referendum on EU membership. Third, it could support and re-enforce nationalism and localism elsewhere in Europe (e.g., Spain and Italy). Nationalism and localism broke up Europe and the global economy shortly before the World Wars. Now, they are threatening to again.
As was the case back then, the break up of mainstream parties and rise of smaller parties with nationalist and local agendas n’t happen by accident. It is the result of the prolonged economic slow-down and unprecedented austerity measures that followed the post 2008-09 Great Recession. Compounding the problem, years of liberal EU immigration policies, bad welfare, and miscalculated responses to geopolitical events in the Middle East and Eastern Europe and the rush to monetary unification without political unification have left European citizens disenchanted with the idea of a common Europe.
The bottom line: Politics are getting scary in Europe. Once again, the Old Continent is running the risk of being a theater in which regions and nations are pitted against each other. That’s bad news for the world’s large corporations, which have been benefiting from open markets and free trade. Financial markets should take note. Mario Draghi and Angela Merkel may be ready to do whatever it takes to save the euro and EU, but there are limits to what can be done.
By Panos Mourdoukoutas
