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When the Indian Air Force plane touched down on the tarmac of the Lahore airport at 4.51 pm this Christmas Day, it is certainly not a chance matter.
When the Indian Air Force plane touched down on the tarmac of the Lahore airport at 4.51 pm this Christmas Day, it is certainly not a chance matter. Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, has really played his cards close to his chest.
Contrary to the speculation all around, Modi could not have gone to Pakistan without doing his homework. The outcome of this "summit" interaction between the two leaders may or may not yield quick results sought by both the countries.
The multi-layered Indo-Pak equation cannot be resolved over night as it takes a long time for pragmatism to dawn on both the nations.
But if it is the political will that matters to set things in motion, then this is the occasion and it could be said that Modi rightly seized it. How would Modi defend the same is to be seen.
Comparisons do matter but under the changed times, diplomacy need not be always what it has been and the way it has been conducted. The moves made for public consumption and for political gains would always be different. These are different times, more complex and more competitive politically.
One has to realise that what is happening today is talks for sure whatever may be the backdrop. In the past we had talks about talks during the UPA I & II under Dr Manmohan Singh's stewardship. Most important was the Sharm al Sheik meet in Egypt which was attended by both Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari and its Prime Minister Gilani. Ever since Pakistan had been pleading with India for talks post-Mumbai. Pakistan's concern was Kashmir and India's was terror, insisting upon CBMs (confidence building measures).
If there is a coincidence, it is in the fact that Sharm al Sheik happened after Dr Singh visited for BRIC summit at Ekaterinburg in Russia. It was here at this historical city on Russian soil that Dr Singh and Zardari directed their foreign ministers to thrash out all issues and report back to them on whether a dialogue was possible given the consistent Indian opposition to Pakistani claim that terrorism should be discussed in the backdrop of not only Mumbai but also Kashmir.
Pakistan's stated stand was that a composite dialogue be held without any reference to terrorism but with incorporating Kashmir in the agenda. Today's meeting too is happening after a Russia visit. It may be recalled that late PM Rajiv Gandhi too had dropped in to say hello to Benazir Bhutto in Russia, much after Tashkent during Lal Bahadur Shastri's regime. (Congress should explore this Russian connection).
On its part, India has been insisting that Pakistan first recognise the dangers of terrorism and acte credibly and visibly against the Mumbai terror planners and executioners as also against all schools of terror operating from the neighbouring soil against India. For India, Kashmir is a non-negotiable and for Pakistan, terror is a non-negotiable.
Nothing much has changed now, the Opposition could always say, questioning Modi's "Bajrangi Bhaijaan" movement in suddenly deciding to land in Lahore. Kashmir is still a non-negotiable while terror is not. The recent developments in the post-ISIS world are different. Pakistan would be forced to talk terror. However knee-jerk the meeting may be dubbed, such movements are needed to shake someone out of stupor. There would be a huge controversy in India and the Opposition, more so the Congress, will make noises.
At Sharm al Sheik, the foreign secretaries talked through July 14th night to sort out the final copy of the joint declaration. At 2 am in the morning, the bleary eyed Indian media contingent was briefed by the then Foreign Secretary, Shiv Shankar Menon, that things had fallen into place.
Their meetings continued a couple of sessions more in the morning before the PMs, Dr Singh and Syed Gilani met at Maritim Jolie Jolie Golf Resort for a couple of hours. Singh refused to include Kashmir in the declaration but terror was included and Pakistani leaders lost badly back home. Singh reportedly told Gilani "...the mandate given to me by my people tells me to stick to our stand. I am conveying to you the sentiments of Indians. You better act on all important terror. All other things can wait".
Gilani too admitted that - to the very first question posed by Geo TV correspondent - "terror is the main issue. Both of us have agreed to discuss this issue threadbare." The stung Pakistani media at once shot back .."is Kashmir not important"?
Gilani and parried the question for some time only to say "we have not compromised on our interest in any way at all. We will discuss all issues one by one over a period. You cannot expect everything to be settled here and today itself."
Nawaz Sharief knows full well that Modi could afford his moves as he will not be conceding any ground on Kashmir. Just as Gilani realised at Sharm al Sheik that the Indian PM has his people's mandate for his argument, Nawaz too would realise that Modi has his mandate. It is Sharief who does not have his people's complete mandate and also that of his army.
As for the outcome, it is anybody's guess. It is inevitable that Pakistan act against terror and the more it delays the process, the greater are the consequences for it. Let us recall Dr Singh once again here, who said "composite dialogue can wait. Terror issue cannot. Pakistan has to address this first and bring to book the perpetrators of Mumbai attacks. It should comprehensively, credibly and visibly act against terror schools and eliminate them. Then and only then, talks would go on. Otherwise, there is no possibility.”
Even if the two Prime Ministers agree on sharing real-time intelligence once again, it is a great achievement for India as it means that Pak agrees to open ISI doors indirectly to India. Well, these are days of non-conventional energy and non-conventional politics too under Modi. That is what bothers the Congress more, it seems.
By W Chandrakanth
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