Fears of human catastrophe, recession loom large

With the unprecedented violence playing out between Israel and Hamas, to many analysts a peaceful two-state agreement seems impossible. Israeli warplanes are striking targets across Gaza even as the US advised Israel that a delay in its expected ground offensive in the besieged Hamas-ruled territory would allow more time to negotiate the release of hostages.

The war, which entered 18th day on Tuesday, is the deadliest of five Gaza wars for both sides. The Hamas-run Health Ministry said on Monday that at least 5,087 Palestinians have been killed and 15,270 wounded. In the occupied West Bank, 96 Palestinians have been killed and 1,650 wounded in violence and Israeli raids since October 7. More than 1,400 people in Israel have been killed, mostly civilians, during the Hamas rampage into southern Israel. In addition, 222 people including foreigners were believed to have been captured by Hamas and taken into Gaza, Israel’s military has said.

The death toll in Gaza is rising rapidly as Israel is ramping up airstrikes, flattening residential buildings in what it says is a preparation for an eventual ground assault. The United States may only prevail upon to delay it, but not abort it. Meanwhile, a third small aid convoy from Egypt entered Gaza, where the population of 2.3 million has been running out of food, water and medicine under Israel’s two-week seal. With Israel still barring entry of fuel, the UN said its distribution of aid would grind to a halt within days when it can no longer fuel its trucks. Gaza hospitals are struggling to keep generators running to power life-saving medical equipment and incubators for premature babies.

Nearly two-thirds of Gaza’s health facilities have ceased functioning amid a massive and deadly increase in Israeli airstrikes in the territory. The World Health Organization said a total of 46 out of 72 health care facilities — including 12 out of 35 hospitals — have stopped functioning across Gaza.

Tensions from the war in Gaza threaten to divert the global attention from the immediate need to phase out planet-warming fossil fuels like oil and gas and move toward renewable energy, electric cars and heat pumps — similar to how sharp increases in the price of oil during the 1970s unleashed efforts to conserve fuel, the head of the International Energy Agency said. “Today we are again facing a crisis in the Middle East that could once again shock oil markets,” said IEA. That comes on top of the stress on energy markets from Russia’s cut-off of natural gas to Europe following its invasion of Ukraine.

The attack on Israel by the militant organisation Hamas and the ensuing Israel military operations have raised fears of a wider Mideast conflict. So far oil price rises have been relatively moderate. International benchmark Brent crude traded at USD 90.17 per barrel Tuesday, up from around USD 84 on the eve of the Hamas attack. The fighting has not led to a supply interruption yet but how things will change one cannot predict. Fossil fuel prices are down from 2022 peaks, but “markets are tense and volatile,” said the IEA in the report. If the conflict in the Middle East spreads beyond Gaza and if the conflict drags on, a large number of Indians working in the region will also be affected. No other country has more nationals working in that region than we have.