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Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das pegs FY23 GDP growth over 7%
The global economy is mired by geo-political uncertainty, elevated inflation, volatile financial markets- including banking sector stress- food insecurity and debt distress, among others
Upswing will be higher than advance estimate, says pausing interest rate hike not in his hands as it depends on on-ground situation
New Delhi : Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das on Wednesday said the growth for 2022-23 is expected to be more than the advance estimate of seven per cent on the back of economic momentum maintained in the third and fourth quarters of the last fiscal.
As per the second advance estimate released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) in February, the economy is estimated to grow at seven per cent in 2022-23 against 8.7 per cent in the preceding fiscal.
“There is a possibility that it could be even more, it will not be a surprise if the GDP growth of last year comes slightly above 7 per cent,” he said at a CII event here. Provisional Annual Estimates for the year 2022-23 will be released on May 31, 2023.
“It initially appeared in the third quarter that there was a pent-up demand which was supporting the economic activity, but all the economic indicators in the fourth quarter of last financial year show that economic activities sustained momentum. In fact, all the high-frequency indicators, around 70 of them, which we monitored in the Reserve Bank of India, almost in all of these high-frequency indicators, the momentum was maintained in the fourth quarter. So therefore, we should not be surprised if the growth is slightly more than seven per cent,” he said. For the current financial year, he said the RBI has projected a growth rate of 6.5 per cent. About the global scenario, he said the coexistence of high inflation and banking stress is complicating the responses of central banks, as they face or trade-off between the risk of either straining financial markets or having to tolerate a longer period of high inflation.
“Amidst these global uncertainties, the Indian banking system remains stable and resilient with strong capital and liquidity positions, improving asset quality better provisioning coverage and improved profitability,” he said.
Das said the decision to tweak policy rates was not in his hand as he himself is driven by the situation on the ground.
