Central Asia turning wary of Russia

New Delhi: The Russia-Ukraine conflict which has been continuing for the last more than seven months has resulted in a huge decline in the standing and prestige of Russia in the world.

Right from the beginning, Ukrainian President VolodymyrZelensky maintained that he was fighting to win. Russian army. Russian President Vladimir Putin might have thought that the Russian forces would be welcomed as liberators in Ukraine but the tenacity and fortitude with which the Ukrainian soldiers and people have defended their country has earned them the admiration and respect of large segments of the global community. The significant reverses suffered by Russia over the last few weeks have forced the global strategic community to re-examine their assumptions.

In Central Asia, China has been rapidly expanding its foot print over the last many years, not only in the trade and economic fields but also in political, military and security affairs. This has been evident in the myriad oil and gas pipelines from Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan in Central Asia to China over the last two decades. The Belt and Road Initiative launched initially as the One Belt One Road Project in 2013 in Kazakhstan has provided a further impetus to the rapidly expanding China-Central Asia partnership.

The last few months have thrown up many instances which would emphatically suggest that the Central Asian nations viz. Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are getting increasingly uneasy and uncomfortable with Russia's actions in Ukraine. The sway and influence of Russia in Central Asia which it characterizes as its 'near abroad' is declining and sliding.

Leaders of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan which are the largest countries of Central Asia have stated unequivocally that they will not recognize the independent status of Luhansk and Donetsk People's Republics.

At the St Petersburg International Economic Forum in June, 2022, President Kassym-JomartTokayev of Kazakhstan He said that if the right of nations to self-determination was recognised, there would be more than 500-600 countries instead of the current 193 members of the UN. For this reason, he said that Kazakhstan inter alia does not recognise the independence of Kosovo, or [the breakaway Georgian regions of] South Ossetia and Abkhazia. And, also quasi-state territories like Luhansk and Donetsk.

The then Foreign Minister of Uzbekistan AbdulazizKamilov stated in the Uzbek Senate on 17th March, 2022: "Uzbekistan historically has traditional all-round ties with both Ukraine and Russia...Uzbekistan recognises the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine. We do not recognise the Luhansk and Donetsk People's Republics."

Both Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan have expressed keen interest to welcome multinational companies which want to leave Russia as a result of the sanctions imposed by Western nations on Russia. According to reports, several companies have already relocated to these countries.

Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have expressly barred their nationals residing in Russia to join the war effort against Ukraine. Some sporadic protests and demonstrations against Russia's war in Ukraine have been allowed and been held in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. Humanitarian assistance and medical relief supplies to Ukraine have been provided by Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan.

Central Asian countries are feeling nervous both at the arguments advanced by Russia to launch its offensive against Ukraine as also the impunity with which President Putin was able to carry out the attack. Some of them, particularly Kazakhstan, are worried that they could be next. Recently there was a tweet by former Russian President and PM Dmitry Medvedev that Kazakhstan is an "Artificial State."

The diminishing stature of Russia in the Region has animated China to quickly enhance its influence in the region. This was visible in the recent announcement of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway link which had been lying dormant for the last many years. While welcoming the flow of investment from China to their countries, the Central Asian nations, particularly the people, if not so much the ruling classes and elite, are anxious and apprehensive about the unduly growing influence and dominance of China. They have hence started looking out for options amongst other countries.

Several countries in the region and beyond are also sensing this opportunity and are keen to strengthen their partnership with these countries. Turkiye has been working on Central Asian countries for the last many years. It shares historical, cultural, linguistic, religious and civilisational ties with all of whom, except with Tajikistan. Iran has also been advancing its partnership with Central Asia. It has just become the newest member of SCO. The US organised a C5+1 meeting with the foreign ministers of all Central Asian states in the margins of the UNGA in New York recently.

The rapidly metamorphosing dynamics of the regional and global security architecture provides a bright opportunity for India to diversify and deepen its partnership with the Central Asian countries. The Central Asian countries constitute a part of India's extended neighbourhood. India has millennia old historical and civilisational relations with these countries. India has of late significantly accelerated its engagement with the region over the last eight years starting with the visit by Prime Minister Narendra Modi to all the five countries in July, 2015.

Prime Minister Modi organised a Central Asia+India Summit in a virtual format on 27th January, 2022. It was agreed that such Summits would be organised every two years. PM Modi visited Samarkand, Uzbekistan in September, 2022 and Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan in June, 2019 for the SCO Summits. India and Central launched the India-Central Asia Dialogue at the level of foreign ministers in Samarkand, Uzbekistan in 2019. The last such Dialogue took place in New Delhi in December, 2021. NSA Ajit Doval organised a meeting of regional National Security Advisors to discuss the situation in Afghanistan in November last year. His counterparts from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan (who are members of the SCO) took part in the deliberations.

There is considerable identity of views and position on most regional and global issues between India and Central Asia. Some of these include peace and stability in Afghanistan; Connectivity (INSTC and Chabahar-all Central Asian countries are land-locked countries, with Uzbekistan being doubly land-locked); counter-terrorism; climate change; trade and investment etc. India can share its expertise in the areas of IT, Startups, pharmaceuticals and much more with Central Asian countries. There is empathy, warmth and trust between the people of India and Central Asia. There is no fear or threat perceived from India as is the case with some other neighbours in the Region.

It would be useful for India to collaborate with other like-minded countries like USA, Japan, Europe and others to strengthen and deepen engagement with Central Asia. This would be to mutual benefit and advantage.

India has been working pro-actively to significantly augment its ties with Central Asia in recent years. It needs to identify further avenues and opportunities in areas spanning political, security, strategic and business to academic, culture, tourism, sports and people-to-people connect. India-Central Asia ties are poised on the threshold of enhanced security, stability and prosperity.

(Ashok Sajjanhar is a former Ambassador of India to Kazakhstan, Sweden and Latvia. He is an Executive Council Member at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analysis and President, Institute of Global Studies. Views expressed are personal and exclusive to India Narrative)

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