UP polls: Can Akhilesh tip the scales?

The Uttar Pradesh Assembly's sanctioned strength is set to go down by one – from 404 to 403 members – when the 18th assembly will be in place following the 2022 polls as the new House will not have a nominated member from the Anglo-Indian community.

Forget this one seat. But, the community per se is key to UP. The BJP has been in power at the Centre since 2014 and the opposition has two more years to gear up for the 2024 general elections. West Bengal voters spurned the BJP decisively to give Mamata Didi a couple of months ago her third term and the result has also sparked off a wild speculation that she has the wherewithal to take on Narendra Modi too.

UP, though, is a different kettle. It is all about communities, castes, creed, religion and much more. The political class might say that it is going to be a 'Lal topi vs Upayogi', 'secular forces vs Hindutva' and 'democracy vs dictatorship'.

The fact remains: it is all about the Mandal-Kamandal combination. India has not changed much from the 80s' or early 90s'. It has only hardened. The vaporous and amorphous feelings have only got crusted around their preferences further. Shifts in alliances are more to cater to the leader's interests. These are all, sadly, self-help groups with no intention to serve people.

The laden phrase "identity politics" has come to signify a wide range of political activity and theorising founded in the shared experiences of injustice of members of certain social groups. There is a difference, however, when it comes to UP. Ideally speaking, these identity politics should be aiming to secure the political freedom of a specific constituency marginalised within its larger context. But then, there are belief systems, too, within and those shall also be given their due place in UP. The demand for a separate OBC census is one such. The marginalised social groups have come together in a loose fashion in the past under the umbrella of a political party or joined hands with other groups to seek their political identity.

In UP, the OBCs have always made or unmade governments due to their voting preferences. Major political parties are aware of this tendency and their managers are eliciting OBCs' preferences this time, too. Afterall, when they constitute up to 45 per cent of the population, you need to knock on their doors. OBCs have empowered themselves to some extent (rather, the leaders) in the past. Having tasted blood, it is but natural that they seek more now. Or shall we simply plagiarise a filmy dialogue and say "yeh dil mange more."

The more the perception that a party is vulnerable, the more will be the bargaining power of these OBCs in the State. The hard negotiations going on and the manner in which even the splinter groups are being wooed should enlighten us about the goings-on in UP now.

Year 2014 is a turning point in the UP history, too. Among the OBCs, Kurmis and Kushwahas who did not find the aspirations accommodated in the normal course, began asserting their identities in a big way thanks to the advent of Narendra Modi on the national scene.

A survey by Lokniti-CSDS shows that the BJP which barely managed to secure 20 per cent of non-Yadav OBC votes grabbed at least three times of it by 2017 and by 2019 the marginalised among the OBCs emerged as a significant factor. The survey also points to yet another factor that the BJP became an accepted party for the other OBCs who constitute around 25 per cent of UP voters. Together with Kurmis and Kushwahas (Koeris) their vote share became half of that of the BJP. These numbers seem to be growing with each passing day. Away from the lens and not seeking any photo opportunity, the RSS has been silently working to strengthen the chemistry further. Be it the BJP or the RSS, mention of OBC factor and the primacy given to them is never forgotten in any village get-together. These bonds are being pickled by them further for longer shelf-life. These are not yet concretised fully. There are several enticements on the offer. There is always a splinter ready to gel, defying the established order, and so we have several such examples too.

The contours will become visible only after some hard bargaining. It is time for the same. Regular democratic practices could be hit due to Omicron or Covid-19 issues, but negotiations are peaking. Samajwadi Party cannot afford to be complacent here just because its leader Akhilesh Yadav is drawing enthusiastic crowds. His party workers would flock in great numbers at all his road shows and meetings (if held in future), but one should remember that these numbers were with him in 2017 too, yet could not bring him to power.

SP and the Congress branded together a 'local boys team' but got confined to 54 out of 403, bagging 27.1 per cent and 6.25 per cent of polled votes. SP clubbed with the BSP of Mayawati in 2019 Lok Sabha elections and won five seats with 19.26 per cent and the BSP got 10 seats with 17.95 per cent.

Today, the scene is quite different as we all know. The macro scene tells us that the BJP is guided by an established trajectory. The main rival, the SP, could be playing a clouded vision oracle. One can always win under these circumstances, provided one is a melee character. But, is Akhilesh one?