New Delhi: Private weather agency Skymet has forecast a normal monsoon this year. The monsoon rainfall will be 3% more than the long-time average of 868.6 mm rainfall (with an error margin of +/- 5%) during June-September period. Rainfall in the window of 4% of the long-time average is considered ‘normal’.

“La Nina (a half-degree or more cooling of the Central Equatorial Pacific) this season was weak, and brief too. The vital signs of La Nina have started fading now. The occurrence of El Nino (a half-degree heating in the same region), which normally corrupts the monsoon, is ruled out,” Skymet MD Jatin Singh said in a statement. “The second half of the season is expected to be better than the first half,” he added.

A La Nina is usually linked to increased monsoon rainfall; the opposite is true of El Nino.

Skymet said it anticipated “sufficiently good rains” over western and southern India. The core monsoon rain-fed zone of Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh would receive “adequate” rainfall. Excess rainfall is likely all along the Western Ghats, and more so over Kerala, coastal Karnataka, and Goa. The northeast region and the hilly States of north India are likely to experience less than normal rainfall during the season.

Rainfall during June, the first month of the monsoon, is likely to be 4% below what’s usual. July and August, the rainiest of the monsoon months, would likely receive 2% and 8% more rain, respectively, of what’s normal for each of these months. September would receive 4% more rain than it usually did, the agency has forecasted.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) is expected to announce its forecast of the monsoon’s performance later next week. In mid-May, the IMD will also provide a more detailed breakup of its forecast on how the monsoon will pan out regionally.

In 2024, India ended up with 8% more rain than is usual for the months of June to September.