Maya’s last-ditch bid to revive her fortunes

BSP supremo Mayawati's decision to give up on her Rajya Sabha membership is not an abrupt one but a well calculated move. In fact, Mayawati has been waiting for a window of opportunity to impact her core constituency – Dalit-Muslim combine – which has been eluding her for some time. The emergence of right-wing forces in Uttar Pradesh just as in other parts of North India riding on the crest of Narendra Modi's popularity decimated her party in the last Assembly elections along with the ruling Samajwadi Party, bringing the BJP back to power in the State.

Mayawati has since been clueless and tried retaining people's attention raising the EVMs issue to buttress her argument that the BJP came to power having deceived the voters. The issue soon lost sheen and she faded away from the prime time. Except for an occasional statement, she has not been seen or heard much in the recent times.

The emergence of Bheem Army as an alternative to the Dalit politics as practiced by the BSP has become her new headache. Mayawati's problems only got compounded with it after her dismal performance in the Assembly elections wherein she had retained only 19 seats in the 403-member UP Assembly.

The Saharanpur caste conflict virtually threatened to wipe out Mayawati's grip on the Dalits and she had to rush there to fish in troubled waters. Bheem Army has the potential – and it proved so – to galvanise the dalits against the BJP or even SP in Western UP significantly due to its youth appeal.

Later, the organisation's rally in the national capital against the Saharanpur violence also came as a jolt to Mayawati because the Bheem Army made the national parties take note of its emerging nature. In fact, those opposed to the BJP are carefully watching Bheem Army's activities and evaluating its potential.

This forced her to visit Saharanpur to regain her lost ground and not to concede any space to the Bheem Army in her domain. However, this particular visit could not impact the people and she failed to gain any ground. She has been biding her time ever since and watching the national scene patiently.

The anti-national activity of Gau Rakshaks of the country, the self-proclaimed conservators of the Indian culture and heritage, gave her this window of opportunity. She also has realised that the reaction of the political parties to the attacks on dalits and minorities and their livelihoods has been lukewarm at best and the core issue has not been addressed properly by anyone so far.

Mayawati is attempting a couple of issues here. One, she wants to retain her control over her vote bank; and, secondly, she is seeking to prevent the Bheem Army from emerging as an alternative. That is what she precisely had in mind when she threatened to resign for not being allowed to take up the issue in Rajya Sabha on Tuesday. She could not delay this move because others from the Opposition could seize upon the initiative and sideline her by championing the cause more vociferously. She would then lose more ground to the Bheem Army perhaps, she fears.

Hence, Mayawati's decision to resign in the early stages of the monsoon session of the Parliament itself is also deliberate. There is also no guarantee that the House would function properly and even if it does, there is no certainty that she would hog the limelight in case the House debates the issue of attacks on Dalits and minorities.

She made the first move, as a consequence, by announcing her resignation. Her resignation itself does not matter to her now and at best it would allow the BJP to gain a seat in the Rajya Sabha due to the latest number-strength that the ruling party has in the UP Assembly. It is still not clear to the political observers whether she has already planned her protest programmes on this count, but going by the past, she must have. After all, she got to take her move to a logical conclusion.

By W Chandrakanth