To go or not to go

The Centre is keen on getting the Telangana Bill passed in the winter session of Parliament with or without the cooperation of the Chief Minister. It seems to be preparing the ground to impose a short spell of President’s rule, if inevitable, keep the Assembly in suspended animation, introduce the T Bill directly in Parliament after bypassing the Assembly, and get it passed by a voice vote, if possible, or by division, if necessary. To be precise, Sonia Gandhi seems to be following in the footsteps of her mother-in-law who bifurcated the bilingual State of Punjab in 1966 into Punjab, comprising Punjabi-speaking people, and Haryana, with Hindi-speaking people, in the face of stiff opposition from Ram Kishan, the then Congress chief minister. Ram Kishan had to be removed and President’s rule had to be imposed to implement the decision before the 1967 elections, as promised by Indira Gandhi, the then PM. The T Bill may get Lok Sabha’s approval even without the support of the BJP. The Congress can muster enough strength even in Rajya Sabha with the help of BSP and JD(U).

It has no option other than hurrying up. It is a kind of do-or-die situation for the Congress, though it is largely of its own making. If the Centre fails to create a separate Telangana State well before the 2014 general election, it is going to lose the game. Pallam Raju, perhaps only the second Union Minister from Seemandhra (the first being Kishore Chandra Deo) who was truthful in difficult times, made it clear last week at Kakinada that Sonia Gandhi had made up her mind and no amount of persuasion or pressure tactics is going to stop the process of bifurcation. Even on Hyderabad, only reasonable demands would be considered, he told his party men who were angry and frustrated. The position of the Congress, as enunciated by Pallam Raju, is understandable from its strategic point of view. If the party fails to deliver T before the polls, it is going to hand a majority of the seats in Telangana on a platter to the Telangana Rashtra Samiti(TRS) which continues to maintain its independent profile. Anymore delay in finalizing the contours of the emerging T state, deliberate or otherwise, is not likely to please the irate people of Seemandhra either. It would be falling flat between two stools. If Telangana is carved and two Congress chief ministers are appointed to rule the two States a few months before the polls, the UPA could offer an attractive package to Seemandhra people and try to win back their confidence. If Telangana State is established, the TRS would be willing to merge itself with the Congress which can then hope to get a majority of the 17 LS seats there. So, the sooner the bifurcation takes place the better for the Congress and the UPA.

The credit for hastening up the process would unwittingly go to Chandrababu Naidu, president of the Telugu Desam Party (TDP). Had he not decided to team up with the BJP, the Congress would have gone according to its own pace without a timetable. When the BJP-TDP tie-up seemed a probability, the Congress high command was jolted to take the plunge.

The BJP has an option that the Congress does not have. The BJP, after embracing the TDP once again, might oblige the partner (one more time) by creating a ruckus in parliament on the ‘Coalgate’ demanding the resignation of Manmohan Singh for his role in the illegal allotment of coal blocks. It can stall the proceedings altogether, leaving no room for the introduction of the T Bill. Like the Congress, the BJP too is interested in picking up as many LS seats from AP. It would bargain for more LS seats, leaving most of the Assembly seats to the TDP. If the national leadership of the BJP perceives that a TDP candidate supported by the BJP would have better chances of winning than a BJP candidate backed by the TDP, it might not insist on having a lion’s share in the LS seats either. Transfer of votes is a key factor in electoral alliances.

BJP’s prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi or Opposition leader Sushma Swaraj can always argue that the BJP is not against Telangana statehood and that it would carve a separate State after the NDA government is formed. They could say that T State would be formed after persuading the Seemandhra people to accept the division as it did in the case of Chhattisgarh, Uttarakhand and Jharkhand. Prevention of bifurcation, even temporarily, can get good mileage for the TDP in Seemandhra where it may, in partnership with the BJP, overtake the YSRCP, which is rated as number one in that region as things stand today. If the UPA-II fails to carry the T-Bill through in Parliament, it will be a blessing in disguise for the TRS in Telangana. The TDP-BJP combine, closely followed by the YSRCP, will possibly lead in Seemandhra in the forthcoming elections.

All kinds of rumours are making the rounds these days. While the chief of them is about a secret understanding between the Congress and YSRCP, the other is related to Venkaiah Naidu, former president of the BJP, promising to deliver a minimum of 10 seats from Seemandhra to Modi if the T-Bill is stopped in its track, which is the only demand put forward by the TDP. To deny the advantage to the TDP, YS Jaganmohan Reddy (YSJ), chief of YSRCP, had surprised many by praising the leadership qualities of Narendra Modi. He did it risking his probable alliance with the MIM whose chief Asaduddin Owaisi had taken strong objection to YSJ’s remarks. But Venkaiah Naidu can convince the BJP top brass that the TDP is a far more reliable ally than the YSRCP whose leader is involved in a number of disproportionate assets cases.

Senior leader LK Advani would also vote for alliance with the TDP, the known devil. More importantly, Modi and Naidu have similar views on economic reforms and development. Some senior leaders in the BJP, for instance Sushma Swaraj, would rather have a tie-up with the YSRCP than the TDP. But they are in a minority and it is not a very important policy issue for them.

In case the Congress party has its way in implementing the decision on bifurcation, it is going to help the party in Telangana and the TDP-BJP in Seemandhra. The YSRCP’s plank of ‘Samaikyandhra’ would have no relevance at the time of elections if the bifurcation takes place by then. The party can only claim that it fought tooth and nail to stop the division. After the bifurcation becomes a fait accompli, the focus would shift to the development of residuary State of AP. Building a capital for Andhras for the first time in their recent history would become extremely important.

Naidu has proven capability and vision to build a new capital and Modi would promise to improve the package offered by the UPA government. Modi-Naidu duo would inspire greater confidence in the people of Seemandhra than YSJ who did not have any opportunity so far to prove his skills in administration or development. As of now, the young leader is perceived as a shrewd politician and a successful businessman. But his ability to govern is still in the realm of imagination.

One can observe growing confidence in the demeanor of Naidu since Modi’s Hyderabad visit. Since his return from Delhi after the fast at AP Bhavan, Naidu has been commenting mostly on national issues. The YSRCP has to fight extraordinarily well to prove pollsters right. It has to talk about the welfare schemes of YSR regime after the slogan of ‘Samaikyandhra’ ceases to matter. YSJ says his party would bag more LS seats than any other party and play a crucial role in the formation of next government in Delhi.

As for Kiran Kumar Reddy, who lost touch with his high command, it is clear that he has become a victim of vicious circumstances. For one, he never thought that Sonia Gandhi would go for bifurcation. He was complacent that most of Sonia Gandhi’s advisors on matters relating to AP are not in favour of division. Chidambaram and Ghulam Nabi were the only exceptions. But when the supreme leader decides, others have to fall in line. Kiran Reddy was cut up on two counts. One, he believed that his party high command had entered into a secret deal with YSJ, his bête noire. In fact, Kiran was selected to replace Rosaiah only because he was considered as a better, younger and more resourceful leader to contain YSJ. When the same leadership that had anointed him to fight YSJ entered into an alliance with the ‘enemy’, Kiran Reddy could not digest it. He always thought he was a better, cleaner and more accomplished politician than YSJ. Two, he was not taken into confidence before the CWC made the decision. Kiran Reddy thought he should have been invited to the CWC meeting as a special invitee since the subject being considered was the future of AP and he is after all the CM. He waited almost for ten days for a call from Ahmed Patel, political secretary to Sonia Gandhi. It never came. In fact, he did not have an opportunity to meet Sonia Gandhi after the fateful decision of the CWC. He was visibly hurt. He stopped trying for an appointment with the party chief. Many of the Congress leaders who met him were aware of the fact that there has been no communication between the CM and the party high command, save occasional phone calls from Digvijay Singh, AICC general secretary in charge of AP.

Against this background, the talk of Kiran Reddy floating a political party has gained credence in some circles. He is young and has at least 15 more years of active political life. Gubernatorial position is too early for him and it depends on many factors. He cannot join the TDP or the BJP, much less the YSRCP. There are many ministers and MLAs and MPs from Seemandhra who cannot jump on any existing party’s bandwagon. It may not be out of any ethical considerations. Every party has its aspirants to contest in the general election.

The Congress ticket is a sure journey into political oblivion. The TDP has at least three active leaders in every constituency who hope to get a ticket. The YSRCP has already promised tickets in many constituencies naming the possible candidates as ‘observers’ of LS constituencies and ‘coordinators’ of Assembly constituencies. Where should the sitting Congress MPs and MLAs go? This question has been bothering the first-timers more than others. When there is no political party to join, a new party has to be launched. Kiran Reddy, by virtue of being in office for more than two years, is believed to be equipped to do so. TG Venkatesh, Minister from Kurnool district, is one of many ministers who are looking up to the CM to take the lead.

The CM had discussions with leaders of Kadapa district like Veera Siva Reddy, Kandula brothers, Tulasi Reddy and Varadarajulu Reddy till late in the evening on Tuesday. He reportedly planned to deliver a fiery oration on the floor of the Assembly tearing into the T-Bill, announce his resignation in a grandstanding fashion and travel to his native district to a rousing welcome where he would announce the formation of a new party. It remains to be seen if his party would afford him that opportunity.