In 1975, then-Prime Minister Indira Gandhi introduced the slogan “Hum Do, Humare Do,” emphasising the need for population control. At the time, India’s population was growing at an alarming rate, and policymakers believed that unchecked growth could lead to several socio-economic challenges. However, the government’s sterilisation programs during the Emergency period took a controversial turn, with reports of coercive family planning operations being conducted to meet targets.

Four decades later, India once again faces the need for a fresh approach to demographic management. The country is encountering new challenges, including a future aging population and increasing pressure on resources. If these issues are not addressed holistically and in a timely manner, they could hinder economic growth and social stability. Statistical data indicates a decline in fertility rates, and projections suggest that India’s population will gradually age over the next two decades. This demographic shift could result in a shrinking workforce and increased healthcare demands. Maintaining a balance between young and aging populations is essential for sustaining economic growth. To achieve this, policymakers must set aside political differences and work towards a comprehensive strategy that integrates education, healthcare, and employment opportunities.

Some political leaders, such as MK Stalin in Tamil Nadu, have urged newlyweds to have children, but such calls are often driven by political considerations like delimitation rather than well-planned demographic management. Short-sighted, reactionary measures could have long-term negative consequences. Given India’s diverse demographic trends, region-specific policies are crucial for effective population management.

The importance of demographic planning was formally recognised at the ninth governing council meeting of NITI Aayog, chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Chief ministers from 26 states attended the meeting, marking the first time that both state and central governments engaged in discussions on managing India’s aging population in a structured manner.

According to the UNFPA 2023 report, India’s elderly population is rising at an unprecedented rate and could surpass the population of those below 15 years of age by mid-century. The share of the elderly (60+ years) is projected to increase from 10.1% in 2021 to 15% by 2036 and 20.8% by 2050. India’s median age, currently 28-29, is expected to rise to 38-39 by 2047. The number of elderly citizens is predicted to increase from about 130 million today to approximately 350 million in the coming decades, leading to rapid population aging.

Data from the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) shows that India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has declined significantly—from 6.18 in 1950 to 4.6 in 1980, and further to 1.91 in 2021, which is below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman. Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N. Chandrababu Naidu has consistently raised concerns about this issue on various platforms.

Currently, only five states—Bihar (2.98),

Meghalaya (2.91), Uttar Pradesh (2.35), Jharkhand (2.26), and Manipur (2.17)—have TFRs above the replacement level. Without proper demographic planning, India may find itself in a situation where a rapidly aging population strains resources, as seen in countries like Japan, South Korea, and China.

To address these challenges, demographic policies must focus on:

• Improving maternal and child healthcare

• Enhancing access to quality healthcare services

• Developing sustainable urban environments to accommodate population shifts

• Implementing robust pension systems to support an aging population

A well-structured demographic management plan is essential to ensure India’s long-term economic stability and social well-being. Timely action will help the nation harness its demographic potential while mitigating the risks associated with an aging population.