Jharkhand poll outcome to testify BJP's popularity graph

December 23 will prove to be a crucial day for the saffron party and it would be known whether the BJP's graph is going up or down in the aftermath of the Citizenship Amendment Act.

The election results in Jharkhand will be giving the first popular verdict on the CAA which is criticised as "divisive".

Jharkhand interestingly has a population that can be described as an example of soul of India and hence the outcome would be watched very keenly.

The BJP is keeping its fingers crossed as the exit polls indicate that the winds are freezingly cold and are blowing against the BJP. Most of the popular exit polls have predicted that the Opposition would storm to power and the BJP may get around 25-30 seats.

Couple of exit polls have predicted hung Assembly. If this prediction turns out to be true, then smaller parties like JVM (P), AJSU and Independent candidates will have a crucial role to play.

Many of the allies of BJP had this time contested the polls alone in this election. In the last Assembly elections, the NDA had won 42 seats with BJP getting 37 and AJSU 5.

It was the first time that any single party or alliance could hit the magic figure. Jharkhand is a State where the ST-SC Muslim combination, none of whom belongs to the BJP's traditional vote-bank, is more than half of the population.

That is why the results of this election assume great importance.

Jharkhand has only about 27 percent of tribal population, about 4 percent of the people belong to Christian community, around 12 percent to SCs, and 46 percent other backward classes.

About 15 percent belong to the general category. Barring the first phase of elections for 13 seats that was held in November, the BJP has been facing a tough time as the campaign between December 7 and 20 centred around the issue of citizenship.

The voting certainly would have taken place with the impact as they understood when people went to polling booths to cast their votes for 68 out of 81 seats for the State Assembly.

Again Jharkhand has been hogging national headlines on some occasions in the last five years for attacks on Muslims. Apart from CAA issue, the Opposition parties have also been attacking the government saying that it had ignored the tribals by denying them chance to become Chief Minister.

Apart from being able to give a stable government, the State's economy has also grown by 10 percent in the last five years.

But then what remains to be seen is will statistics defeat sentiment or not. In case of hung Assembly, the BJP would count on All Jharkhand Students' Union (AJSU) and Jharkhand Vikas Morcha as they are ideologically close to the BJP.

The fact remains that as the CAA has angered the Muslim migrants from Pakistan, Bangladesh and Afghanistan will not be entitled to the benefits under the Act. Hence, analysts feel that the Muslims who had supported the BJP in the earlier elections would now move away.

It is with this calculation, political parties like the Congress have been hitting the roads and resorting to violence, political observers aver. The fact remains that Muslims who came from these three countries and are living in Jharkhand are angry and upset.

Their perception of CAA is that their days in India are now numbered. There are also reports that the Muslim villages had several households bearing the BJP's flag, but they vanished overnight after the CAA was brought in.

The CAA, political observers say will impact 15 Assembly constituencies which went to polls on December 16 and could impact another 16 constituencies which went to polls on December 20.

The apple cart of the BJP will be upset if tribal and Muslim communities voted against the CAA. But the BJP feels that while some damage is inevitable, the CAA could result in polarisation of votes along religious lines and it could help them to manage to be back in the driver's seat.