Can world leaders rebuild trust?

“Rebuilding Trust“ is the theme of the 54th Annual Meeting of the World Economic Forum (WEF) at Davos from 15th to 19th January 2024, which will provide a crucial space to focus on the fundamental principles driving trust, including transparency, consistency and accountability. The important base for these discussions is the Global Risks Report 2024, which is critically analysed in this write-up. Right at the outset, leaders of the world can be assured that a deteriorating global outlook perspective projection is awaiting them at snow filled chilly picturisque town of Davos this year.

If we look back at the events of 2023, plenty of developments captured the attention of people around the world, such as vulnerable populations grappling with lethal conflicts, from Sudan to Gaza and Israel, alongside record-breaking heat conditions, drought, wildfires and flooding. Societal discontent was palpable in many countries, with news cycles dominated by polarization (mis- and disinformation), violent protests, riots and strikes. As we enter 2024, a detailed Global Risks Perception Survey (GRPS) of 2023-2024, based on key risk categories such as of economics, environment, geo-political, societal and technological, highlights a predominantly negative outlook for the world over the next two years that is expected to worsen over the next decade. This is undoubtedly a very alarming signal for the world leaders and the civil society at large.

Based on the Perception survey, The Global Risks Report 2024 names climate change, demographic changes, technology and geopolitics as the changing ‘structural forces’ that are making the world less stable. Indeed this fallout is already affecting billions of lives. Extreme weather, AI-generated mis- and disinformation, a cost-of-living crisis, cyberattacks and socio-political polarization are already upon us.

Environmental risks continue to dominate the risks landscape over all three time frames. Two-thirds of GRPS respondents rank Extreme weather as the top risk most likely to present a material crisis on a global scale in 2024, with the warming phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle projected to intensify and persist until May this year. It is also seen as the second-most severe risk over the two-year time frame and similar to last year’s rankings, nearly all environmental risks feature among the top 10 over the longer term.

Growing societal polarization and unchecked technological risks leads to pressure on „truth“. This features among the top three risks over both the current and two-year time horizons, and ranking 9 over the longer term. In addition, societal polarization and economic downturn are seen as the most interconnected – and therefore influential – risks in the global risks network, as drivers and possible consequences of numerous risks. If commercial incentives and geopolitical imperatives, rather than public interest, remain the primary drivers of the development of artificial intelligence (AI) and other frontier technologies, the digital gap between high- and low-income countries will drive a stark disparity in the distribution of related benefits impacting economic productivity, finance, climate, education and healthcare, as well as related job creation.

Misinformation and disinformation has emerged as the most severe global risk anticipated over the next two years, foreign and domestic actors alike will leverage this to further widen societal and political divides. The Report explicitly mentions that as close to three billion people are expected to head to the electoral polls across several economies – including Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Pakistan, the United Kingdom and the United States – over the next two years, and the widespread use of misinformation and disinformation, and tools to disseminate it, may undermine the legitimacy of newly elected governments. Resulting unrest could range from violent protests and hate crimes to civil confrontation and terrorism.

Beyond elections, perceptions of reality are likely to also become more polarized, infiltrating the public discourse on issues ranging from public health to social justice. The Report emphasises, as truth is undermined, the risk of domestic propaganda and censorship will also rise in turn. In response to mis- and disinformation, governments could be increasingly empowered to control information based on what they determine to be “true”.

Cost-of-living crisis remains a major concern in the outlook for 2024 particularly on low- and middle income people as well as severe economic strains for weaker economies. The economic risks of Inflation and Economic downturn belong to the top 10 risk rankings over the two-year period making the near-term outlook highly uncertain. There are multiple sources of continued supply-side price pressures looming over the next two years, from El Niño conditions to the potential escalation of live conflicts. And if interest rates remain relatively high for longer, small- and medium-sized enterprises and heavily indebted countries will be particularly exposed to debt distress leading to economic uncertainty.

Future Governance Challenges will see a deeper divide on the international stage between multiple poles of power and between the Global North and South. This would paralyze international governance mechanisms and divert the attention and resources of major powers away from urgent global risks. As both a product and driver of state fragility, Interstate armed conflict is a new entrant into the top risk rankings over the two-year horizon.

Finally, global environment clearly predicts that cooperation will come under severe pressure in this fragmented, in-flux world. The next decade will usher in a period of significant change, stretching our adaptive capacity to the limit. And in this context, it is indeed a serious challenge for the global leaders and the civil society organizations to address and design necessary actions against today‘s global risks finding a path towards “Rebbuilding Trust.”

(Writer is an Humboldt-Expert in Agriculture, Envirnment and Cooperation and an Invitee for Open Forum, WEF, Davos)