Resurrecting Indian economy during Covid times

On 27 April 2020, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in his meeting with all State Chief Ministers, indicated that they should prepare their States for economic revival at the end of the 40-day nationwide lockdown.

In the last two weeks, several experts predicted the shapes that economic recovery would take. While some predicted a 'V' shaped recovery that is a quick recovery, others predicted an 'L' shaped recovery where the slump will continue for a prolonged period of time. But clearly everything at this stage is just a speculation.

Thanks to Covid-19, things are in an erratic flux. There is no crystal ball that can precisely predict the future. If restarting economy is our priority, then we must know how much control we have on the disease itself.

India's agility in taking tough decisions early on during the disease outbreak has controlled the spread of the disease and the mortality rate. For a country of 1.3 billion, we have around 30,000 infections and 934 deaths.

But if we restart the economy while the virus is still active, it will be a great challenge to maintain that rate of infection unless we know everything about Covid control and our healthcare machinery is kept in top condition.

But as things stand, the medical fraternity is not still sure of the disease progression and its pathways. Even after treating a few million patients, doctors do not seem to understand the reason behind 'Cytokine Storm' or the reason behind the typical 'second week crash'. Though it is understood to be a case of immune systems going rogue and attacking the host instead of the virus, doctors are still not able to predict this occurrence with accuracy so as to prevent it. Doctors are also not clear why people with autoimmune diseases like Lupus, Rheumatoid arthritis react differently and why patients who are 'intubated' and attached to ventilators are deteriorating instead of improving. The medical fraternity is not sure of 'herd immunity' as a recipe for protection or any alternative approaches like 'heliotherapy'. There is no conclusive evidence that high temperature with humidity is a potent mix to eliminate the virus or any one of the 80 vaccine candidates and 130 therapeutics candidates being developed in various laboratories around the world will be able to make the cut.

Now it is easy to believe that it is hard to predict things in a pandemic. Things will change so fast that even what we thought we were sure of – the symptoms of the infection, the treatment protocol, immunity factors, comorbidities – are today suspect and need re-evaluation.

But restarting our economy also depends on the overall healthcare infrastructure. Its public knowledge that our healthcare system has been a victim of monumental neglect for over 60 years. It is only in the last six years a number of reforms has been introduced backed by infusion of funds. Since we have a fragile healthcare infrastructure, we need to navigate this process of economic revival with utmost care.

Right now, our country needs a comprehensive-complementary (C-C) plan - a fiscal strategy and a public health response. The NITI Aayog has proposed a fiscal stimulus of Rs 10 lakh crore or 5% of GDP. What the country needs now is a strategy that can help India walk the tight rope while juggling balls and spinning wheels.

Given the complexity of the problem, we should constitute an eclectic team of experts who will unconditionally share their intellectual capital. This team will operate on principles of heuristics and tactical intelligence. Such teams should be created in all States as they all have unique business ecosystems.

Economists are necessary to revive our economy. But they are not enough. The country needs insights from business leaders, entrepreneurs, traders, city planners, psychologists, data scientists, computer scientists and futurists… basically an eclectic team of experts based on concept of "necessary but not enough".

McKinsey & Co and CII suggested that the economy can be reopened in a calibrated way. In the first phase, they recommend that manufacturing, e-commerce, construction and all other sectors could be started after that.

Theoretically it is good, but this strategy has to be validated by experts. We have seen that many a strategy fail in the recent past and risk reports finding their way to the trash after Covid-19 swooped in on us. Pinkerton Risk Report 2019 identified corruption, corporate frauds, natural disaster and crime as the biggest threats.

Given the complexity involved in economic scenario planning with data asymmetry to boot, these experts will have to be guided by principles of heuristics and tactical intelligence. Heuristics helps in managing uncertainty and fluid situations. It relies on one aspect of a complex problem like a rule of thumb, an intuitive judgment. The case of Boston Marathon blasts, victim management is all about heuristics.

Coming to strategic and tactical intelligence, during corona times we should certainly stay with the tactical. Strategic intelligence is about future, trends and patterns. But right now, everything is quite nebulous. We should reserve this intelligence for later – may be till the beginning of 2021. Till then, we must rev up the engine of tactical intelligence that deals with the 'here and now'. Tactics is all about real time, current conditions in the current context.

Visualise this. The current context demands that a professional with a PhD takes all exams from LKG upwards as his certificates are not valid now. Well, he is a PhD and he can very well do it. But the catch is that the syllabus is different now. Assuming that he can pick up the concepts on the fly, there is another problem. While he is writing the 7th grade exams, he is disturbed by his 10th grade knowledge. This interference of knowledge that crept up without his permission makes him fail in spite of having more knowledge than required. So, there should be a 7th grader with him to help. This is where eclectic composition of teams is useful – especially in a team that is trained in heuristics. A trader knows the 'today' of business, the economist knows the 'climate' of business, the futurist knows the 'tomorrow' of business and a psychologist? He will help deal with 'cognitive dissonance' and the 'unreal' aspect of this adaptation.

This team of experts have to capitalise on India's unique ecosystem. We know that India's resistance to the virus is not only because of a very early effective lockdown but is also because of our inherent genetic immunity. Our country's struggle with infectious diseases for centuries has altered our genetic composition.

India is also unique in another way. We have all the four Industrial revolutions operational in India today, or should I say they are present together moving in tandem creating a unique 'hybrid' business ecosystem that covers the entire spectrum from manufacturing to disruptive technologies like Artificial Intelligence and Robotics. This puts India in the "High Opportunity Zone" businesswise and "Low Threat Zone" disease wise.

Providential, isn't it? Then, why delay economic revival?

(The writer is BJP leader, president, Futuristic Cities, global thought leader, advisor on smart cities, governance & policy)