Why this week's French polls matter to the world

Paris: With war singeing the European Union's eastern edge, French voters will be casting ballots in a presidential election whose outcome will have international implications. France is the 27-member bloc's second economy, the only one with a UN Security Council veto, and its sole nuclear power. And as Russian President Vladimir Putin carries on with the war in Ukraine, French power will help shape Europe's response.

Twelve candidates are vying for the presidency -- including incumbent and favourite President Emmanuel Macron who is seeking a new term amid a challenge from the far-right.

Here's why the French election, taking place in two rounds starting Sunday, matters. NATO Russia's war in Ukraine has afforded Macron the chance to demonstrate his influence on the international stage and burnish his pro-NATO credentials in election debates.

Macron is the only front-runner who supports the alliance while other candidates hold differing views on France's role within it, including abandoning it entirely. Such a development would deal a huge blow to an alliance built to protect its members in the then emerging Cold War 73 years ago. Despite declaring NATO's "brain death" in 2019, the war in Ukraine has prompted Macron to try and infuse the alliance with a renewed sense of purpose.

"Macron really wants to create a European pillar of NATO," says Susi Dennison, Senior Fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. "He's used it for his shuttle diplomacy over the Ukraine conflict." On the far-left, candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon wants to quit NATO outright, saying that it produces nothing but squabbles and instability.

A NATO-skeptic President Melenchon might be a concern especially for Poland, which has a 1,160-kilometer border with territory now controlled by Russia. Several other candidates want to see either diminished engagement with the alliance or a full withdrawal. Although unlikely, France's departure from NATO would create a deep chasm with its allies and alienate the United States.

A far right alliance?

"Over 30 percent of French voters right now say they are going to vote for a far right candidate. If you include Melenchon as another extreme, anti-system candidate — that's almost half the entire voting population. It is unprecedented," Dennison said. Far right candidate Eric Zemmour has dominated the French airwaves with his controversial views on Islam in France and immigration.

However, even centrist Macron ruffled feathers in Muslim countries two years ago when he defended the right to publish cartoons of the prophet Muhammad. That came during a homage to a teacher beheaded by a fundamentalist for showing the cartoons to his pupils as part of a class on free speech.

A friend of America

The US often touts France as its oldest ally -- and from Russian sanctions to climate change and the United Nations, Washington needs a reliable partner in Paris. France is a vital trans-Atlantic friend for America, not least for its status as continental Europe's only permanent UN Security Council member wielding veto power. Despite the bitter US-France spat last year over a multibillion deal to supply Australia with submarines -- which saw France humiliated -- President Joe Biden and Macron are now on solid terms. "Macron is obviously the only candidate that has history and credentials in the US relationship. All the others would be starting from scratch at a time of great geopolitical uncertainty," said Dennison.

Migration in the continent

In light of a huge migrant influx into Europe last year, France's position on migration will continue to strongly impact countries on its periphery and beyond.