Elections 2014: UP in arms

The state, administered by Mulayam Singh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party, is currently the cauldron of pulsating political paranoia. For an electorate that has been a historical witness to bloody communal clashes, the recent violence in Muzaffarnagar is destined to play a crucial role. BJP’s twin decisions to make Amit Shah the commander-in-chief of UP, and field Narendra Modi from Varanasi, hence, gains all the more traction. Shah, of course, did his bit recently when he gave an insight into his insidious understanding of religion(s). Being Modi’s Man Friday for far too long, his ‘badla’ and ‘izzat’ bile didn’t come as a shock after all.

The deeply divisive and politically polarizing figure that he is, Modi’s candidature from UP is fraught with cryptic symbolism. It must be remembered that Muzaffarnagar riots, that purportedly transpired at the behest of BJP leaders Sangeet Som, Suresh Rana and Hukum Singh, occurred after Shah took charge of the state. In felicitating its tainted MLAs, Modi has made no pretense of making peace with his entrenched ideologies. He swears by Hindutva, and is likely to survive by it. The recent influx of RSS men in its ranks is a testimony to BJP’s larger design of renewed saffronisation, just as the Aseemanand incident is its attestment.

That two of country’s bloodiest riots- Ayodhya 1992 and Gujarat 2002- happened when the BJP was in power is no mean co-incidence. Despite their proclivity to pounce on anything that remotely pits Hindus against Muslims, BJP’s resolute defence of its accused MLAs serves as an eye-opener. That, however, does not exonerate Akhilesh Yadav’s failings. Not long back, the young scion passionately drove his Kranti Rath through the dusty hinterland straight into the hallowed precincts of 5, Kalidas Marg. That, sadly, was the longest his fairytale lasted. The Australia-educated Socialist is not only struggling to fulfill his lofty pre-poll promises, he is being ridiculously reluctant in negotiating his swarming army of uncles. Then, of course, there is Azam Khan and his buffaloes to pander to as well.

Muzaffarnagar, to put it crudely, was a glorious opportunity for SP to drive home their vaunted secular claims. Quite inexplicably, that never happened. Apart from transferring a few bureaucrats and blaming ‘communal forces,’ the ruling dispensation did practically nothing for the riot victims. The brazen celebrations in Saifai were the final straw, if one was needed at all. Add to it the foreign study tours and a general sense of lawlessness in the state, and Uttar Pradesh is already talking of this being Akhilesh’s first and final fling with power.

While BJP has certainly capitalized on glaring glitches, the situation invariably puts Congress in pole position in the state. Rahul Gandhi, it must be noted, did a commendable job in the run-up to Assembly polls in state in 2012. Despite his failure, the blue blood did enough to increase Congress’ tally by six seats to 28, and managed to increase 3.03 per cent of its vote share to 11.63 per cent, up from 8.61 per cent in 2007. He famously tore SP’s election manifesto in a rally, before articulating similar intentions for the poor Ordinance. Having said that, Rahul’s ‘charisma,’ built more by lineage than labour, has never threatened to go beyond traditional Congress bastions of Amethi and Raebareli. It would be interesting to see how a fractured and frustrated electorate votes in the backdrop of homelessness and violence.

While urban UP, including Lucknow, has been BJP’s stronghold, Rahul will do well to steal the minority thunder from SP in riot-torn state. Muslims, going by common logic, are unlikely to change their mind anytime soon, and going by the way their self-appointed guardians, Messers Azam Khan and Company, have treated them, Rahul Gandhi must be licking his lips in narcissistic glee.

The complex caste equations and the clear religious divides have set the stage for an unpredictable election in Uttar Pradesh, and we are not even discussing debutants Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) yet. While it would be tad premature to suggest that AAP’s in-house poet will eventually hum a fairytale in Amethi, any dent in Rahul’s backyard, its (in)significance notwithstanding, will be nothing short of a well composed crescendo. The stage is set.