Bihar a cauldron of casteism

The ruling party and its allies have no major developmental plank to speak about. The highly fragmented campaign - dominated by each unto himself policy - of the grand alliance is seeking the people's mandate mostly based on an anti-Modi campaign.

Modi does not have the support of minorities any way. So it is all those caste groupings that are important for him which makes Amit Shah's job difficult.

The result would be directly proportional to Modi's marketing ability. There are no voters per se in Bihar. There are dozens castes, which would be choosing their next government that would, at best, keep them in their pristine solitary groupings for the next five years

As the campaign for the first phase of Bihar Assembly Elections enters the dying hours, the following few lines are the best way to put things in perspective and tell the Bihar tale aptly.

In 48 hours from now, OBCs - Yadavs' (14 per cent), Kurmis (4 per cent) EBCs – Kushwahas (6 per cent), Koeris (8 per cent), Telis (3.2 per cent) Mahadalits plus Dalits (16 per cent), Muslims (16.9 per cent), Forward Castes (15 per cent) – consisting of Bhumihar (3 per cent), Brahmins (5 per cent), Rajputs (6 per cent), Kayasth (1 per cent) - Adivasis (1.3 per cent) and others including Christians, Sikhs and Jains (0.4 per cent) go to polling booths to exercise their choice.

Again, don't be under any illusion that all those mentioned above would turn up to vote. Only half of them could turn out to cast their vote. This slightly complicated explanation is necessary in case of Bihar as there are no voters per se in Bihar.

There are all these above mentioned and many dozens more of such other castes, which would be choosing their next government that would, at best, keep these different people with voting rights in their pristine solitary groupings for the next five years. A Bihari is aware of this and is mulling over the same now.

It is important to understand that there is no simpler way to understand the Bihari voter psyche. Unlike his counterparts elsewhere, he has a very complicated choice to make. He or she has to identify his or her own caste first, seek his or her own leader,

seek his or her own safety, and then seek his or her own future. In the process, if he or she finds the "others" leader along with his or her leader, he or she has to dwell upon the ubiquitous choice,

highly limited to his or her surroundings alone. Any foolish venture to step out and be different, will end up in disastrous consequences, for the voter and the family.

Welcome to Bihar - the caste cauldron of the country ! Science tells us that the demands of food acquisition exert strong selective forces on the anatomy, physiology, and behaviour of birds. Natural selection for efficient foraging affects “decisions” about prey choice, patch choice for foraging,

patch exploitation strategy, and foraging group size (solitary versus flock foraging. It has been widely demonstrated that food abundance and distribution (along with predation) are the primary determinants of foraging behavior.

The foraging choice of the "Mahagathbandhan" or the Grand Alliance is exactly dictated by one or all the above mentioned behavioural practices of birds. Picking friends, zeroing in on the strengths of the voter base,

deducting the effects of the past baggage, substracting the anti-incumbency, adding up the opponents fault lines...it is quite an exhaustive list to go through in knitting an alliance in Bihar.

Has the Narendra Modi-Amit Shah combine done this right in tying up with a Manjhi or Paswan? Is Nitish-Lalu duo in a better position to block the BJP forays into the caste segments just as the AAP did in Delhi ?

The Bihar story will be written not by these leaders any way. It will be written by all the following provided the leaders have reached them.

As per, 2011 Census of India, Scheduled Castes constitute 16% of Bihar's 104 million population. The census identified 21 of 23 Dalit sub-castes as Mahadalits. Mahadalit community consists of Bantar, Bauri, Bhogta, Bhuiya, Chaupal, Dabgar, Dom (Dhangad), Ghasi, Halalkhor, Hari (Mehtar, Bhangi), Kanjar,

Kurariar, Lalbegi, Musahar, Nat, Pan (Swasi), Rajwar, Turi, Dhobi, Pasi, Chamar and Paswan (Dusadh). Paswan caste was initially left out of the Mahadalit category.

Extremely Backward Class (EBCs) is also sometimes referred to as Most Backward Class(MBCs). There are 130-odd EBC castes in Bihar. How is it that traditional politics continue to dominate the scene?

Bihar has a total literacy rate of 47%. Overall, male and female literacy rate is 59.7% and 33.1% respectively. Total rural literacy rate is 43.9%. In rural areas of Bihar, male and female literacy rate is 57.1 and 29.6 respectively.

Total urban literacy rate is 71.9. In urban areas of Bihar, male and female literacy rate is 79.9 and 62.6 respectively. Total number of literates in Bihar is 3,16,75,607 which consists of 2,09,78,955 male and 1,06,96,652 female.

Patna has highest literacy rate of 63.82% followed by Rohtas (62.36%) and Munger (60.11%). Kishanganj, where from the AIMIM is making its entry into Bihar, has lowest literacy rate of 31.02% followed by Araria (34.94%) and Katihar (35.29%).

This is a real challenge in Bihar. Even if one campaigns on a developmental plank, what is more important for winning here is the social engineering skill. After taking care of these issues, the leaders have to bank on their skill to woo the sizeable section of the youth ready to migrate in search of livelihoods.

The BJP is better off in this segment making development its agenda through the speeches of its chief campaigner, Narendra Modi, and the side show of Amit Shah with his 160 GPS enabled "Parivarthan Raths" targeting the young voters.

It is true that voters are not discussing development as yet. They are also not discussing the wellness of the 'Ghatbandhan" either.

Hence, Nitish Kumar is banking on his 10,000 strong "election sena" which has undertaken a "Har Ghar Dastak" programme to reach out to one crore households to probe the mind of voters who cast their preference in his favour the last time.

There is still a tentativeness to the alliance he has forged with Lalu Prasad Yadav as he is unsure of whether the latter will deliver.

Is so called Muslim-Yadav ghatbhandhan enough to propel him to a third term or the fear of Lalu's Yadav sena would undermine the very ghatbandhan? Even Nitish is not aware of this.

The ruling party and its allies have no major developmental plank to speak about. The highly fragmented campaign - dominated by each unto himself policy - of the grand alliance is seeking the people's mandate mostly based on an anti-Modi campaign.

Their narrative is getting juxtaposed with imported issues so much so that even 10 days after the beef-murder incident of Bishada in Uttar Pradesh, they keep taunting Modi for the same.

People would like to hear something better – say about jobs, power supply, clean drinking water, good roads and development.

It should be recalled that the same 'Mahaghatbandhan' failed in scoring over the BJP in the recently held Bihar Legislative Council elections. The grand alliance won 10 seats against 13 of the BJP alliance.

Vote transformation is crucial to any alliance. Elections to the Council would in no way reflect the general mood. Agreed.Coming to the BJP alliance, the strategy on ground is rather clear.

Modi does not have the support of minorities any way. So it is all those caste groupings that are important for him which makes Amit Shah's job difficult.

While Nitish is the tallest Bihar leader for the grand alliance, the BJP does not have one to project as CM just as in case of Delhi.

Hence, it is banking exclusively and heavily on its development plank and the result would be directly proportional to Modi's marketing ability of his developmental theme to the OBCs, EBCs and Mahadalits. Will he be able to do so? Would a Bihari fall for his line?