Analogies to take spotlight ahead of voting

The high-octane campaign for the November 30 Telangana Assembly polls ended on Tuesday. It was the longest campaign period when compared to Mizoram, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan where the polling is over.

The focus in Telangana would now shift towards microman agement of polls where all political parties would try their level best to catch the attention of voters and possibility of luring them with money or gifts including liquor despite strict vigil by the authorities is not ruled out. Tuesday and Wednesday nights are going to be the most crucial period for the law enforcing agencies. There are 2,290 contestants in the fray for the upcoming elections for 119 seats.

With the campaign coming to an end, interesting analogies are coming to fore. Some feel that it is going to be a real tough battle and the possibility of a hung assembly is not ruled out. There are some who feel that it is going to be a repeat of West Bengal elections where BJP and TMC together ensured that the Congress suffers a blow.

While the BRS exudes confidence that it would hit a hat trick and that the 95 meetings which KCR addressed had helped the pink party to overcome the anti-incumbency factor, the Congress says it would be ‘Bye Bye KCR.’ The BJP interestingly claims that it will become the king maker.

This in fact is the most interesting point. Let us presume that there would be hung assembly and BJPs seats become crucial. In such an eventuality who will the BJP support? Will it support the Congress whom it wanted to get rid of from the country or the BRS against whom all party leaders including Prime Minister Narendra Modi levelled allegations of corruption and said that both the BRS and Congress are Parivarvad parties?

If BJP extends support to BRS it would be giving arsenal to the bloc INDIA in the Lok Sabha elections which are not far away. Since BJP wants Congress mukt bharat, it certainly cannot support it. What is the other option left? Will it try to split BRS and Congress and form the government as it did in other states in the past? This may not be possible as it may not cross single digit in Telangana. Moreover, splitting Congress this time may not be so easy a task provided it wins in 55 plus seats.

The Congress party which had taken the polls very seriously this time would ensure that no one slips away and even those who have won know that after a decade they are close to power and hence will not jump so easily. Certainly, Telangana would be providing an interesting post poll scenario and promises high drama.

In the past normally heavy polling was considered as an indicator of expression of anti-incumbency factor. But now one cannot say so with certainty. The voters are still silent and which way they would vote is the trillion-dollar question.

Some clues would be available once the polling ends when the exit polls would be out not just for Telangana but also for Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Mizoram.

The exit polls help us in gauging the public mood on the day of polling and they provide detailed information about the trends based on the surveys carried out by media organisations and other agencies forecasting who would be in the drivers seat for next five years along with the voting pattern. The exit polls can provide a rough estimation of many aspects of election though they cannot be totally relied upon.