Fog of war is spreading fast
Fog of war or situational unawareness or chaos in military conflicts persists and threatens to spread wide and far, at a fast clip.
Fog of war or situational unawareness or chaos in military conflicts persists and threatens to spread wide and far, at a fast clip. It's Day 11 of Putin's invasion and the mighty convoy is inching towards Kyiv, the capital city of Ukraine. Russia is also planning to encircle Dnipro, while it is mustering forces to encircle Dnipro and turning its main attention to cutting Ukraine off from the Black Sea as per reports from Ukraine.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned that the very Ukrainian statehood is in jeopardy. Result: Ukraine is feeling the full heat of Putin's power. Russian pilots are pushing deep inside. There is an absolute panic in Irpin, firing taking place between Ukrainian forces and Russian militia. Its real mayhem in Ukraine.
Though the world is tightening its noose against Russia and trying to isolate it, Putin feels the sanction on Russia is akin to declaring war on them by the world. However, Russia claims they are unfazed by the sanctions and that sooner or later all those who shut their shops will have to come back to Russia. One needs to understand that Europe cannot survive without gas supplies from Russia. There are still friendly countries like India, Bolivia, Argentina, Brazil and even Panama which have refused to explicitly condemn or impose sanctions.
Russia feels that it is only countries like US which are trying to turn the people against the Putin government. The jury is still out on the full impact of war on the global economy as well as India's. Certainly, there is an immediate need to stop the war.
Whether India condemns the war explicitly or not, the fact is that if war continues for more time, it will adversely impact the country's economic growth. The prices of commodities which India imports will also rise. It may even impact our exports.
There is, however, one silver lining in this situation. Skyrocketing global prices have made Indian wheat exports very competitive. If the situation is handled properly, it may succeed in filling the gap left by Ukraine and Russia. Wheat from Gujarat, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh is now being delivered by rail wagons or trucks at warehouses near Kandla port at a price which is about Rs 500 more than MSP. New crop would be arriving in the markets in another ten days' time. In view of the global demand, there is possibility of government lowering the procurement and divert wheat from western and central India for export purposes. This would also help in reducing the pressure on godowns.
Similarly, the steep hike in the prices of sunflower oil and palm oil in the past few days could benefit the mustard growers in Rajasthan and UP. This crop, too, would be coming into market in next few weeks. What is required is proper market strategies to help the farmers growing wheat and oilseeds.
All this is possible if the Union government and the opposition parties do not continue trading barbs, stalling the proceedings of the Parliament and state assemblies over frivolous issues. If they refuse to behave in a matured manner, it would only damage the economic prospects of India. The lawmakers are now on test. Whether they will show their grit or not will be watched.