Ukraine war: No signs of peace deal efforts, yet

The Israel war on Gaza and the unprecedented casualties and sufferings of Gazans have taken away the global attention from Ukraine’s struggles to defend itself against Russian invasion and win back its lost territories. Any peace efforts by UN Security Council are precluded by Russia’s veto power and Ukraine pins hopes on UN General Assembly and strives to rally major countries (West and US) in support of its cause.

Over the last two years, over a half million Russians and Ukrainians perished, with thousands maimed. Enormous destruction is the order of the day. Peace eludes the war-stricken nation, and sanctions are failing in having deleterious effect on Russia. The war has caused escalation of commodity and energy prices and food shortages as well, stoking inflation in many countries, especially the poor. International negotiators and peaceniks are at a loss how to broach ceasefire, leave alone a peace deal, to end the horrors of war.

The 10-point peace plan being championed by Ukraine President Zelensky, since the November summit of G20, includes among other things the intractable issue of restoration of Ukraine’s state borders with Russia. While Putin may be open to issues such as release of prisoners and deportees, it is a strictly ‘no’ to vacating the annexed areas in and around four Ukrainian oblasts – Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia (September 2022). Putin says there is no going back on “denazification, demilitarisation and its neutral status”. He claims to create a buffer of Russian-speaking territories should Ukraine eventually come under EU-NATO fold. As such war is persisting, and pain piling upon the besieged nation, with its defences fraying in wake of waning support. Russia seems resurgent and its fresh offensive indicates this.

Amidst this imbroglio, a war fatigue seems to be setting in among Ukrainians who are getting resigned to giving up lost territories for a peace deal, according to a poll by Kyiv International Institute of Sociology. The fatigue is growing even among lawmakers and political parties in the west. A reality of the times, indeed.

Zelensky and the West should look at the prospect of a deal to buy peace first and then allow for negotiations on the annexed territories. International observers point out that Ukraine had already blown such a chance when Zelensky walked out of early negotiations in March 2022. Now, even more embittered, Zelensky insists: “We must fight for what is ours.” Thus, there is a huge stalemate.

Nevertheless, the war horrors call for innovative diplomacy by the world leaders. Ukraine can’t drive out Russia, nor can Russia seize more territories with the West bolstering Ukraine defences – Last week, Hungary said ok to efforts to admit Kyiv into the EU. Political correctness and warped ideologies do not show the way forward. Can the West resign to a truncated Ukraine and still make it prosper as it did in respect of West Germany, as guns fall and remain silent on borders? Can they leave it to the time to pave for re-unification of Ukraine territories a la the merger of East and West Germany? They can even look at the Korean armistice, which sustains as it leaves out intractable issues. History is replete with solutions to the seemingly endless wars. One wishes it or not, negotiations will eventually begin. It is a matter of time and innovative diplomacy. Meanwhile, slaughter of hapless people will continue, whether the world, seized as it is by the Gaza war, takes note or not.