Varied Dimensions of Monsoon in India

All the chips are betting on the arrival of monsoon since the early March, due to the fact that our economy relies heavily on it. Over the past few years, striking on the monsoon forecast on the national scale has become relatively easier due to advancements in technology that the world has witnessed. The prediction for monsoon in India in 2015 suggests that the monsoon will remain normal for the initial phase of the year and will make inroads as the time elapses.

Prediction Models for Monsoon in India

The models that have been set out hold hint of the departure of monsoon from normal. However, there exists a higher probability for the monsoon to oscillate between 104% and 110% of the long-period average. The 89 cm. of long-period average has been recorded for June, July, August, and September in the last 130 years. Also, the underlying models give an allusion of 10% chance of bucketing monsoon but the chances for drought are quite measly. The monsoon in India in 2015 may bear striking similarities to the one in 2013.

Regional Forecast

The researches that have been carried out by Meteorological Department of India suggest that monsoon in the central parts of India should hover over above normal 105-110%. Additionally, the facts and figures reflect on higher possibility for normal rainfall in south, east, and north-east India. Moreover, there exists relatively less probability of a normal monsoon in north-west India to south and central India. However, it will receive much higher rainfall than last year. Additionally, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, and Punjab encountered severe rainfall deficits in the year 2014.

El Niño

The El Niño southern oscillation is regarded as a phenomenon which features the water off the coast of Peru being either warm, or cool or neutral. Warm El Niño is consistent with a drought in India. As opposed to it, cool El Niño corresponds to torrential downpour. The El Niño of 2014 paved the way for drought last year. As far as this year is concerned, equatorial pacific will backtrack to near-neutral conditions. Such a reversion heralds the 80% chance of a normal monsoon as per the statistical estimations.

Statistical Figures and Implications

Thenormal monsoon is substantiated by the statistical figures that give a suggestion of the cat in hell’s chance for consecutive droughts. The yesteryear witnessed the mild meteorological drought. Over the course of last 130 years, there had been only four instances of successive droughts. As we put two and two together, we can easily work out only 3% chance of a drought in 2015.

According to the predictions of the Indian Meteorological Department, the probability of rains in the upcoming monsoon season is below normal with a 33% probability of rains being less than 90%.

Monsoon and Agriculture

The monsoon in India has a significant bearing on agriculture and it threatened the cereal production in the face of expected tumble by 3% in the wake of drought in the fiscal year 2014-15. However, the farm production is expected to make a steep rise by as much as 4% in the year 2015-16. Overall, the year witnessing the torrential downpour coincides with the food production notching up the growth by 15%. Apart from this, the normal year observes the growth a tad on lower side of roughly 4.4 %.

As opposed to it, the year in which drought strikes the country, the farm production plummets down by 7%. This is due to the fact that in a drought, a considerable part of India’s arable land remains barren and uncultivated. This infuses a surge of life in the soil and prepares it well for the subsequent cultivation. As a result, farmers will be out for reaping the dividends from the sown area by increasing it as they will foresee a glimmer of hope in the arrival of normal monsoon.

Are you waiting for the monsoon season? Share your thoughts in the comments section.