Nuclear tensions rising in S Asia

The time, attention and effort devoted to reaching a deal with Iran over its nuclear ambitions has unwittingly tended to obscure the growing dangers of nuclear proliferation elsewhere in the world. South Asia, a volatile and unstable region, has been witnessing an escalation in military and nuclear rivalry, somewhat overshadowed by the understandable fears of a nuclear arms race in the Middle East.

This part of the world, according to analysts, is fast becoming a race for nuclear supremacy among three powers - India, Pakistan and China (while technically not classified as South Asia, the country shares borders with both India and Pakistan). This rivalry in the eyes of many analysts is dangerous in itself but is made even more complex by the mutual suspicions and historical enmities that bedevil the region.

First, take Pakistan. The country is plagued by economic and political insecurity but is locked in a fight for military bragging rights with India. The country is believed to have one of the world's fastest growing nuclear arsenals. A recent report indicated that it had tripled the number of warheads it had a decade ago.Nuclear strength is a political and military strategy in the eyes of the Pakistani governing class, a way of countering India's political and military clout. Pakistan has no official nuclear doctrine, but official communiques speak of "restraint" and "deterrence".China and Pakistan have been close for decades, based largely on their mutual suspicion of India.

In other developments, the Pakistanis are reported to have test-fired a missile recently that appears capable of carrying a nuclear warhead. Pakistan possesses the medium-range Shaheen-III missile with a range of some 1,700 miles, leaving India easily within range. A recent leader article in the New York Times reported claims that Pakistan continues to develop short-range tactical nuclear weapons. Again, leaving India well within range. Noone should underestimate the rivalry between the two countries, informed by their troubled history, which includes outright wars in 1947, 1965 and 1971.

The fierce nuclear competition in South Asia is seen by many as a recipe for instability in a region already burdened with problems India is estimated by analysts to have some 110 warheads but continues to expand its nuclear programme but at a slower pace, according to some reports. The country has a mixed strategy, combining short and long-range ballistic missiles, nuclear submarines and cruise missiles. It tested its first nuclear device in 1974. India has a No First Use doctrine, recently confirmed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. China's nuclear strength is a worry to India, as is its more advanced strategic weapons and its numerically superior military force. Also a worry is the traditionally close relationship between China and Pakistan, India's erstwhile enemy.

Informed analysis estimates that China's nuclear weapons number some 250 warheads - a mixture of short, intermediate, and long-range ballistic missiles. China's ambitions encompass land, air and sea-based nuclear delivery systems. Pakistan's economic and political instability also poses huge and troubling questions. America and Russia still possess more than 90% of the world's nuclear weapons but South Asia, home to three nuclear states, remains a growing worry, perhaps one that will get more attention in the coming months. (BBC)