Russia-Turkey face-off likely

Following the downing of the warplane, one can expect President Vladimir Putin to hit back at Turkey at a time and place of Russia’s choosing. It would be very unlike him to let this episode pass. In the future, there will be more Russian attacks on Turkmen positions around Latakia, which is Russia’s main airbase in the region

The ghosts of the past never really leave us. Much before Turkey shot down a Russian fighter jet, escalating tensions in an already chaotic Syrian conflict, there was already a contest between the two States.

In the early times, after the Mongols retreated, both Russia and Turkey began to emerge as powerful States jostling for primacy in a race driven by their faiths. As they began expanding outwards, they engaged in a series of clashes over the Black Sea basin. Russia’s ascendance was strengthened after it defeated Sweden at Poltava in 1709.

Later in the century, in 1783, it won the Crimea and southern Ukraine from Turkey. Not surprisingly, the decline of Turkey coincided with the rise of Russia. The two empires fought each other for the last time during the First World War.

That did not end the mistrust, though. By the end of the war, both monarchies had been either overthrown or defeated. While Turkey officially remained neutral during the Second World War, the USSR viewed Turkey’s continued relationship with Nazi Germany, whose warships were allowed passage through the Straits of Bosporus, as inimical to it.

No sooner had the war ended than the Cold War began and Turkey joined NATO and the American-sponsored CENTO. The Russian-Turkish friction started again as the United States stationed its forces in Turkey and built a huge airbase in Incirlik. One of the lesser-known transactions leading to the lifting of the US naval blockade of Cuba and the withdrawal of nuclear capable Soviet R-12 IRBM’s from Cuba in 1962 was the US withdrawal of its Jupiter missiles from Turkey.

Conflicting claims

The collapse of the Ottoman Empire left behind a mosaic of tribes and nationalities under the control of France and Britain. As British diplomat Gertrude Bell drew lines across the region’s map – giving us the borders of Iraq, Syria and modern Turkey – the division left several nationalities stranded across countries, including the Turkmen.

The Turkmen are ethnic Turks who have lived in the region of Syria and Iraq since the 11th century. The Turkish Encyclopaedia claims there are 523 Turkmen villages in Syria, concentrated mainly in the regions straddling the Turkish border, particularly in the Aleppo and Latakia governorates. Although there are no reliable population figures, they are estimated to number between 1.5 and 3.5 million. Large numbers of these Bayirbucak Turkmen have spilled over into Turkey as refugees.

The Russian SU24 Fencer shot down on November 24 was attacking the Syrian Turkmen Brigades. Turkmen fighters in Iraq and Syria are armed and trained by Turkey’s Special Forces Command. A composite of the flight path maps released by both parties gives us a good idea about what might have transpired.

If we accept the Turkish claim of airspace violation, the two Russian fighters were overflying a sliver of Turkish territory, about 1.7 miles across, that would take the SU24 about 20 seconds to cross. The Turkish maintain that their fighters warned the Russian fighters for over 10 minutes.

On the other hand, the surviving Russian pilot denies there was any warning over radio or by flying alongside. Whatever the veracity of the supposed warnings, it is apparent that the pair of Turkish F-16s was waiting in ambush and fired missiles at the two Fencers as they flew across, hitting one.

The Russian SU24 is a 1970s vintage light bomber, incapable of fighting back. Nor does it have detection systems to indicate a radar lock or incoming missile. Bringing it down was a turkey shoot. Another thing that is clear is that the Russian jet was hit over Syrian airspace, as both its crew parachuted into Syrian rebel territory. One of them was killed by Turkmen fighters as he was descending by parachute or after his capture.

Russian attacks

Following the downing of the warplane, one can expect President Vladimir Putin to hit back at Turkey at a time and place of Russia’s choosing. It would be very unlike him to let this episode pass.

In the future, there will be more Russian attacks on Turkmen positions around Latakia, which is Russia’s main airbase in the region. Russia will probably send in SU24 Fencers or SU34 Fullbacks for the attacks, with SU30 Flankers flying escort to detect and fire at any Turkish aircraft that threaten Russian fighters.

The latest Sukhois have the Irbis radar capable of detecting a 3-square-metre aerial target at a distance of 400 km, and can track 30 airborne targets and engage eight of them at the same time. They carry a family of Vympel air-to-air missiles that can engage targets up to 160 km away.

Additionally, Russia has announced the deployment of a battalion of its most advanced S-400 ground-to-air missiles. The S-400 system uses three different missiles to cover its entire performance envelope, and it is capable of engaging airborne targets up to a range of 400 km. A regular S-400 battalion consists of at least eight launchers with 32 missiles. If a mobile command post of such a battalion is based at Latakia or on a Russian ship nearby, this would imply a range well into Turkish airspace.

Military alliances

Just like the region’s past, the military alliances shaping up are wrapped up in convolution. Turkey’s NATO ally, France, is coordinating air missions on Islamic State targets with Russian forces. The US is supporting Kurdish Peshmerga fighters battling the ISIS in a wide swathe of territory from Mosul in Iraq to Kobani in Syria. Its aircraft supporting the Kurds are based in Turkey’s Incirlik airbase.

Meanwhile, Turkey has been attacking the Kurds since it does not want a free Kurdish homeland in northern Iraq, which the US favours but the other regional power, Iran, does not support. The Russians have always backed a Kurdistan in the region.

All through the Cold War, Russia played host to the legendary Mullah Mustafa Barzani, who was fighting against America’s then CENTO allies – Iran, Iraq and Turkey – for an independent Kurdish homeland. That fight still continues, but now it is the Americans who have sided with the Kurds and are supporting them in their war with ISIS.

The Kurds are a people with a great history. The great Saladin who led the Muslim war against the European Crusaders in the Levant was a Kurd. At the height of his power, his sultanate included Egypt, Syria, Palestine, Mesopotamia, Hejaz, Yemen and parts of northern Africa. Incidentally, he was born in Tikrit in Iraq, which is also Saddam Hussein’s hometown.

'Stab in the back'

The Turkey-Russia fracas goes against the run of recent developments between the two countries. The Turks and the Russians have been quietly mending fences. In 2009, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russia’s Vladimir Putin met at Sochi and laid the basis for future economic and political co-operation. In 2010, they lifted visa requirements for their nationals and bilateral trade boomed since.

In late 2014, the leaders of Russia and Turkey signed a series of major trade and energy deals. Notably, Russia agreed to reduce the price of gas supplied to Turkey by 6% and to provide it with an additional three billion cubic meters of gas. Russia is also set to build Turkey’s first nuclear power plant.

While Turkish construction firms are active in Russia, four million Russian tourists travel to Turkey each year. Turkey and Russia have also set an aim of increasing their two-way trade volume from $38bn to $100bn by 2020.

Indicating the probable new shift, Russian Prime Minister Dimitry Medvedev said: “It will be difficult to compensate for the damage done. Its direct consequence may be the rejection of a number of important joint projects and Turkish companies’ loss of their positions on the Russian market.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin said it was a “stab in the back that will have serious consequences for Russia’s relationship with Turkey.” Rather ominously, he added: “After what happened yesterday (downing of jet on Nov 24), we cannot exclude some kind of other incidents.”

By:Mohan Guruswamy

(Courtesy: scroll.in)