Paris Accord: Compromise deal by India?

With no statutory signed agreement, the West would give resources at their own sweet will which will be much less than a formal commitment. This would greatly affect countries like India which would need enormous resources and technological support to curb emissions in the way it is expected

Notwithstanding the hype over the historic Paris convention, finalised by 196 countries, nagging questions remain. It is amply clear that the 2 degree C target may not be reached, even if the commitments made are honoured by the respective nations, who are signatories to the accord. This is simply because the aspirational goal of 2 degree C is not consistent with the pledges unless deep emission cuts of over 5 to 6 per cent per annum between 2030 and 2050 are pursued.

Although the accord contains jargons such as “climate justice” and “sustainable lifestyles,” equity has not been operationalised in the agreement. Some analysts are quite surprised that why there was no strong and united resistance from the developing world before signing the agreement.

With no statutory signed agreement, the West would give resources at their own sweet will which will be much less than a formal commitment. This would greatly affect countries like India which would need enormous resources and technological support to curb emissions in the way it is expected.

Moreover, the historical responsibility of the West in emissions does not find mention in the accord. This can definitely be called an unjust accord, favouring the West. A study by Oxfam has showed that the richest 10 per cent – which are mostly in the OECD countries, including North America, Western Europe, Australia, New Zealand and Japan – are responsible for almost half of all global carbon emissions while the poorest 50 per cent – some 3.5 million people – cause just 10 per cent every year.

Their profligate consumerism that has been driving emissions has not been questioned. Thus, it is quite clear that if you compare the richest 10 per cent with the poorest 10 per cent, the gap is mind boggling. The carbon footprint of the richest is 60 times larger than that of the poorest at the global level.

The Oxfam report found that per person emissions of India’s richest 10 per cent are about two tonnes which is just a quarter of even the poorest 50 per cent of the US whose emissions are about 8.57 tonnes. There can virtually be no comparison between our country and that of the US or of the western world.

Therefore, one cannot say that the recent Paris accord would, in any way, be beneficial to the developing countries and India. It is indeed a setback including a major political and economic loss. The Delhi-based CSE said the agreement was a compromise deal and in many ways it could be termed “lowest minimum denominator”. It projected that the accord would put the world on a path of 3 degree C and above of global warming as not much enhancement would happen in the next decade.

A study by US scientists of University of Maryland suggested that the pledges made by the countries for emission reduction action up to 2030 held the potential to reduce the probability of the highest levels of warming. But in spite of this prediction, there is broad consensus by scientists and other technical experts, before and after the convention, that curbing average temperature rise within 20C by 2100 may not be possible.

Greenpeace pointed out that “rich nations have benefited most from burning fossil fuels that wreck our environment – they must take their fair share of the responsibility for helping the developing world to deal with the impacts”.

While there is no mention in the accord of the financial commitments of the developed nations to help their counterparts in the Third World, there is a decision text that establishes “floor of $100 billion” from which additional contributions would be added beyond 2025. But these contributions are surprisingly stated to come also from developing countries. However, India managed to ensure that this would be on a voluntary basis.

Several analysts believe that the pressure on India and other developing countries is likely to intensify from 2023 onwards, possibly due to continued expansion of coal-based energy. It may be necessary for the country to fight for carbon space after the first review of the accord in 2018.

The Environment Minister’s ambitious hope may put greater responsibility on countries like ours. How much help and support these countries would get from their developed counterparts remains to be seen but it is amply clear that resources would not be forthcoming easily. It is not known why he reposed hope in the accord considering the fact that India can emit only 58 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide by the year 2030, which would be quite insufficient for the country’s energy needs and industrialization programmes. How India fulfils its commitment would undeniably be closely watched.